City's strength in comparison with the 'big four', Part 2

[Colin the King]

On the old board I started a thread measuring our squad depth against that of the established top four, along with Spurs, Villa and Everton. For City, anyway, things have changed beyond recognition since then (it was only June!) and I think crucially, none of the top four made any outstanding buys- The rags have since been weakened by Ronaldo's absence, likewise Arsenal with Adebayor and Liverpool with Alonso- all of whom played an important part in their teams' successes over the last few years. So I think it'd be interesting to make those comparisons again now that the transfer window is closed.

As before, the teams are in picture format to make it easier to read and compare each team and the players chosen are only a point of view.

City's first and second string


United's first and second string


Chelsea's first and second string


Arsenal's first and second string


Liverpool's first and second string


Spurs' first and second string


Villa's first and second string


Everton's first and second string



It's remarkable how much we've been strengthened since the last analysis- the quality available to us from the bench will be invaluable to us and fewer games than most of the others puts us in a very strong position. Chelsea still come out on top in the first team stakes I reckon, however I think we have a second string better than any of the others- look at the amount of experience, and most tellingly, Premier League experience among them. It's square pegs in round holes for Spurs, Everton, Villa and Liverpool when it comes to replacements, whereas our second XI is full of players in their natural positions. That too could make a difference.

To me, Liverpool are the most vulnerable because of the weight of expectation on two players' shoulders. If either Torres or Gerrard get injured or hit a poor run of form, they don't have anywhere near the quality of replacement. Even their strongest XI isn't all that impressive. Glen Johnson- question marks over his defensive ability for all his attacking prowess, uncertainty over whether Aquilani will hit the ground running- even if he did, surely he can't match the quality of Alonso? Their own fans have been criticising Carragher recently, they think he's completely lost his pace and that his head's not right. Aurelio is hot and cold.

I think we're in a relatively strong position- whatever the newspapers say, the people whose words matter are Khaldoon, Cook and Sheikh Mansour and they have expressed publicly an expectation to finish in the top six. They will be mindful of the fact that we're now on a level playing field with the big guns, and that many of have made losses in terms of squad strength this Summer. We can privately make our assault on the top four, perhaps even the league itself whilst maintaining that same public expectation. All the team then has to do is perform well every week, watch the points rack up- and consequently the heat on the others.

It's going to be a really interesting season from here on in.

[yankmanc]

What a fantastic thread, thank you for the analysis.

There's another way to look at the comparisons though. Our squad is light years beyond what I've seen following City for the last 7-8 years. Every day I pinch myself at the fact that we have two legit players at every position. Looking closely at the second strings of these other teams, however, makes me realize that this is simply life as one of the big boys. We're about to be treated to genuine "selection headaches" rather than the situations called as such by the MEN in seasons past (e.g., Ball vs. Garrido or Vass vs. Fowler). I think we're definitely in the mix, and I hope we can sneak up on folks like you predicted, but it unfortunately seems more likely that if we finish 5th the press will make it out as a disappointment and if we pull off a miracle to get in the top 4 then they'll just say we bought our success.

Luckily us City fans know better and success will be so welcome that it won't matter if there's some bitternesss floatin' around.

[Alex Sapphire]

good analysis
I think we also should look at it as a squad game.
We need to compare "first eighteens" as this determines whether the strength and shape of a team can be maintained in the event of injury to any given player. In that sense I think we're in as good shape as anyone.
Then I think we need to look at the "first fourteen". Do we have three players on the bench who can change a game either by protecting a lead or creating a new scoring threat.
I think we look stronger than anyone in terms of the first of these, with any of de Jong, Kompany or Zabaleta capable of strengthening our defense at the expense of an attack minded team mate.
Going forward Twitchy, O'Neill and even Wenger have an old fashioned "plan B" approach of a big daft lad coming on (although Wenger also has some more subtle alternatives), but otherwise we are also in good shape with bags of pace available against tired defenders as well as proven prem goalscorers.
It's great to see the playing field looking as level as this, but remains to be seen how easy it will be for the first team to gel with only three players whose games have developed together and five who have played less than half a dozen games together. Got to factor that in to our expectations.

[Chinners]

Excellent post Colin, I'll be pondering over those squads for ages today . . . . looks like you've put Bellers in the wrong squad btw ;)

[Slim]

Aston Villa is so messed up Colin, Luke Young is a rightback, Milner is playing in the centre of the park, Young is playing on the left wing and they play a 4-4-2 with either Carew or Heskey as the centreforward. (Usually Carew) And most villains believe it will be Dunne/Cuellar

[Bingo Lewis]

Our second string would kick fuck out of 3 years ago's first team.

[Alex Sapphire]

Aston Villa is so messed up Colin, Luke Young is a rightback, Milner is playing in the centre of the park, Young is playing on the left wing and they play a 4-4-2 with either Carew or Heskey as the centreforward. (Usually Carew) And most villains believe it will be Dunne/Cuellar

That's not how they've kicked off this season.
Carew has been out altogether (claiming "a fever") and heskey is being overlooked for a forward three of Milner Agbonlahor Young

[Slim]

Aston Villa is so messed up Colin, Luke Young is a rightback, Milner is playing in the centre of the park, Young is playing on the left wing and they play a 4-4-2 with either Carew or Heskey as the centreforward. (Usually Carew) And most villains believe it will be Dunne/Cuellar

That's not how they've kicked off this season.
Carew has been out altogether (claiming "a fever") and heskey is being overlooked for a forward three of Milner Agbonlahor Young

I assumed he meant strongest sides, as he has Zhirkov, Aquilani and Modric all listed and they are long term injuries.

[Dipstick]

Good work.

On a similar note (and forgive the obscenities), rags XI vs the Arse: Foster, Brown, O'Shea, Vidic, Evra, Fletcher, Carrick, Giggs, Valencia, Rooney, Nani

How many of them would get in our first team? 3 at most I reckon.

[Slim]

Good work.

On a similar note (and forgive the obscenities), rags XI vs the Arse: Foster, Brown, O'Shea, Vidic, Evra, Fletcher, Carrick, Giggs, Valencia, Rooney, Nani

How many of them would get in our first team? 3 at most I reckon.

Vidic, Evra and Rooney? I think valencia is a hell of a player and carrick is a lot better than he has been utlised at the filth.

[Oooh Vonky Vonky]

Good work.

On a similar note (and forgive the obscenities), rags XI vs the Arse: Foster, Brown, O'Shea, Vidic, Evra, Fletcher, Carrick, Giggs, Valencia, Rooney, Nani

How many of them would get in our first team? 3 at most I reckon.

Maybe, maybe not...........but a point to be made is whatever the relative strenghts/weaknesses on paper they got the 3 points. So by the same token we should do so............but we all know it is not that simplistic !!

Nice looking at the squads anyway and i would say the best squad of players City have ever had in history.

[FA cup winners 2006]

one of the most impressive things with our squad is the amount of flexibility in it. We can start with a 442, but without making any substitutions we can easily go to 433 or 451. also we have the left fotted centre half that would also allow us to play 3 at the back if needed.

I think other managers will find it very difficult to prepare their team to play againist us as they wont have a clue what formation or personal we will use

[smurfsdabomb]

Villa and Everton especially stand out for having a lack of depth. I think both are as good as city with everyone fit but take out a Yakubu, Arteta, Young or Carew and they've got nobody near their level to replace them. I think outside of Given city don't have a player who I'd describe as indispensable.

[smurfsdabomb]

But that Chelsea reserve side is unreal, if they got replacements for turnbull and sturridge they'd be capable of fielding two teams and getting both into the top 4. :O

[Colin the King]

Aston Villa is so messed up Colin, Luke Young is a rightback, Milner is playing in the centre of the park, Young is playing on the left wing and they play a 4-4-2 with either Carew or Heskey as the centreforward. (Usually Carew) And most villains believe it will be Dunne/Cuellar

Luke Young played left back nearly all of last season, as soon as Bouma was ruled out and was impressive throughout. And every Villa fan I've spoken to believes they're much more effective playing a 4-3-3 with Milner and Ashley Young either side of Agbonlahor. That's the exact system they played against Liverpool and Fulham and won both games. They feel that Heskey disrupted their progress last season and attribute him coming in to their decline, partly anyway. I think you'll see that system as first choice a lot this season. It utilises their strength a lot better- counter-attacking at speed. Obviously they have Carew and Heskey who can offer a different option, much like us with Santa Cruz. You might be right about Dunne/Cuellar though, I wasn't 100% sure on that one.

I suppose it's not an ideal analysis because to a certain degree my opinion has seeped in, and obviously it's highly unlikely that at any given time an entire XI of one of these teams would be ruled out- but it's really just to gauge how strong we are mirrored against them- and in the event of us suffering loads of key injuries at once (and the two African lads heading off in January) I think we're better equipped to deal with it than certainly Villa, Everton and Liverpool.

[mcfc1632]

Good work.

On a similar note (and forgive the obscenities), rags XI vs the Arse: Foster, Brown, O'Shea, Vidic, Evra, Fletcher, Carrick, Giggs, Valencia, Rooney, Nani

How many of them would get in our first team? 3 at most I reckon.

This is a good way of looking at it...

The way CTK sets it out you can see the strength n depth and for me no side is better placed in that respect - but when you take the 1st teams of each of our opponents and then ask the question - would the individual in each position displace our equivalent - I think it really stands out, e.g.:

scum:

VDS - over Shay - no chance

Brown over Richards - small no (and I am one of the 'HTF can Micah play in front of Zab' boys)

Evra over Bridge - (reluctant) yes

Vidic over Toure - small no (and I know others would think differently - but on Toure's current form for me he keeps his place)

Ferdinand over Lescott - (resounding) no - (again I know others would think differently - England player and all - but for me dope nose is one massively over-rated player who would not be playing for England if the policy had not been choose all the scum's English players - FFS Brown!!)

Carrick over Ireland - no

Fletcher over Barry - NO - (easiest choice)

Valencia over SWP - No

Nani over Rob - duh - I do not think so!!!

Rooney over Tevez - (Reluctant) Yes

Berbaflop over Ade - No

I have tried to be objective - with only debatable points I think being the CBs - but that is my opinion

So in comparison with the scum - for me only 2 players are superior than ours and would force automatic selection

Interestingly, when you do the reverse 6 - Shay, Stevie, Barry, SWP, Robbie and Ade - would walk into their team

[dazby]

I'm suprised at how poor scouse 1 look at the back. They may concede quite a few this season.

[King Kev]

Brilliant post CtK!

For what it's worth, here are my thoughts on the subject;

* I am amazed and impressed that we now have TWO teams that are of Premiership standard. It's important to have a quality squad and competition for places for any club with ambitions of and real success

* Silva is going to be very busy for the scum's second string ;o)

* Whilst we now have an impressive squad assembled, we won't be challenging for the title until we have a better starting XI than our rivals. For example, with Chelsea; Cech is better than Given, Terry is better than Lescott, Cole is better than Bridge, Lampard is better than Barry and Drogba is better than Tevez, so we still have some way to go.

[Vhero]

Main team looks strong but first team looks half as good players like Bellamy makes us look second rate. The scouse on paper look gash really I agree with another poster without Torres and Gerrard they would seriously struggle now Alonso is gone been saying that to the missus since they sold him.

[Ted Hughes]

Great post very nicely presented.

On paper we're as strong as anybody imo. The rags 2nd team looks really strong on paper but when you then break it down there's 2 old farts & 2 injury prone farts all of whom who are unlikely to contribute all season.

All of these teams know each other a lot better than we do & have been working together a lot longer. They also all know that they have the ability to come back from being behind & win. Until we've done that we can't class ourselves with them. Equally until we've beaten one of them we can't say we're in their class. Once we start doing those things however, I recon our squad is better. To put us at the absolute top we'd probably need one or two established world performers but I believe some of our current players can step up become that; on current form I wouldn't swap Adebayor or Barry for anyone in their positions for example.