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I was just listening to the Football Weekly podcast and the various views of the guys on there as to the "Race for Fourth"TM.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/seri ... ballweekly

It was released before last night's Liverpool win but after the weekend games and a few interesting City-related points mentioned:

Adam Johnson - Too late a surge for him to make the plane but SWP will probably be on it

City's result at Sunderland was a totally freak one. They would, on any other day, have won quite comfortably (if it weren't for Craig Gordon).

Opinions split as to who was in poll position for fourth (predictably one of them thought Liverpool's "experience" was the kind of factor that might enable them to "win six in a row and claim it"....it was then pointed out to him that they had failed to win more than 2 on the run all season).

A couple did think that we were the likeliest candidates....pointing to us being the least defeated team in the PL this season, saying that there is an image that we are inconsistent but the truth is actually that more often than not, if we don't win, we do draw (rather than lose). (One of them did also make the rather bold statement that if we got 4th this season, with the resources we have and the "pull" that would give us for players...it was not inconceivable that we could win the European Cup within the subsequent couple of years...haha)

The interesting point for me was that they highlighted our next four (i think five) games as being those that will define our season. To a neutral they all look winnable. As a City fan, I say that if we can claim close to maximum points in these games then we will get 4th....as the last 5 games are the kind of matches I expect us being capable of getting something from (not winning all but with the exception of the trip to the Emirates, the three toughest matches are all at Eastlands). HOWEVER, these next five games are precisely the ones we are traditionally pathetic at getting results from....so for me the next five are going to shape our season. Can we raise our game????

So our next five (I still can't recall when the re-arranged Spurs match is but am assuming it is in the period of the last 5 as there is no time to play before that)

Fulham - away
Everton - home
Wigan - home
Burnley - away
Birmingham - home

then

Spurs - home
United - home
Arsenal - away
Villa - home
West Ham - away

it really is squeaky bum time
[youtube]2NvH2SC8zyE[/youtube]

It all comes down to the same thing which is whether we play well and perhaps more importantly the approach we take into games.After the initial few games under Mancini we have had had a strange run of matches where we haven't really played well for the vast majority of the time. A few good halves but generally we have had a fairly defensive approach to games. 3 wins in that time. 2 at home v Pompey and Bolton where we actually played pretty rubbish and then that amazing result against Chelsea and I am still not sure if that was closer to the real City or a freak result.

Aside from those wins we have had 2 defeats and 3 draws. The defeat at Everton probably shook Mancini who maybe thought all was well but we were well beaten by a good side.The Hull game I felt was coming as we had started to go into games with what seemed a defensive mindset and risking exactly what happened.A poor side was given momentum and capitalised with 2 goals and even with a much improved second half we fell short.The draws were interesting. Against Stoke we were again very poor and lacking in a positive approach as per the Bolton/Pompey games but at least battled for a decent draw and then again against Liverpool it wasn't a bad draw but it was a disappointingly negative performance.

Then after a great win at Chelsea albeit after a shocking first 20 minutes we go to Sunderland and again weren't at the races for the first half.If we keep starting games in first gear and conceding the momentum to sides we will find ourselves behing in the game before we get going and that inevitably will bring some poor results. You simply cannot keep going behind without expecting to lose some games.The 3 games against Fulham,Everton and Brum are matches where I think we must score the first goal. Playing as we have been with a very slow start will be asking for trouble so it's time for the team to get positive and I just hope Mancini has that message and starts the team on the front foot.

Those next 5 games are all winnable but NOT I believe unless we shake ourselves and start from minute 1.I think we need a minimum of 4 wins out of the 5 to show how serious we are as contenders because the games after that are extremely tough.If we are not in pole position before Spurs at home I don't think we have a chance of 4th. There is only the Wigan game where I think we can win without playing really well.Even at Burnly if we let them come at us I fear we will concede and have a Sunderland situation trying to come from behind and might not win.

It may not be quite so squeeky in 2 weeks.

We play twice now before Spurs take to the field. So if we can win at Fulham - no reson why not - and home to Everton we will have 6 points gained over them. By the same token our game against Everton is one of the games in hand over Liverpool.

So if Bobby and the boys get in gear we should be clear of both going into a home game with Wigan.

I hate to say it but I think it`s now spuds to lose after Sundays draw:

Fulham - away 1
Everton - home 3
Wigan - home 3
Burnley - away 3
Birmingham - home 1
Spurs - home 1
U***d - home 1
Arsenal - away 0
Villa - home 1
West Ham - away 3

Optomistic 17 and its not like we`ve no talent. We need to start with 2 wingers and make opposition fullbacks too afraid to come forward but we dont. All the games that are left we need to set our stall out. We should be doing that at home anyway, and the arse struggle against teams that have a go all other way games are winnable however I dont think Bobby will play like that...Shame.

simon12 wrote:I hate to say it but I think it`s now spuds to lose after Sundays draw:

Fulham - away 1
Everton - home 3
Wigan - home 3
Burnley - away 3
Birmingham - home 1
Spurs - home 1
U***d - home 1
Arsenal - away 0
Villa - home 1
West Ham - away 3

Optomistic 17 and its not like we`ve no talent. We need to start with 2 wingers and make opposition fullbacks too afraid to come forward but we dont. All the games that are left we need to set our stall out. We should be doing that at home anyway, and the arse struggle against teams that have a go all other way games are winnable however I dont think Bobby will play like that...Shame.

So if Sunderland had some monkey in goal and we won 4-1 - same team same players same shots - would you still say '...after our 4-1 win at Sunderland'?

You have got pessimism-itis. We are still in pole position due to our game(s) in hand and we have 6 home games. Get some valium.

I reckon our home form will see us through but could do with winning on sunday and at turf moor, agree with DH though we need to start from the off instead of going a goal down.

I'm pretty optimistic to be honest.

Sunday was a disappointment in several ways but as lots have said, it was far from a fatal blow to our chances.

What I sincerely do hope is that Mancini has seen the value in throwing off the shackles somewhat. I'm glad that we have a run of games against similar types of team in the next 5 games. All of these games will see teams try to contain us, pressure us and stop us getting them on the break. It's a chance for Roberto to take the best parts of his discipline that he has brought and infuse it with some of the latent adventure and attacking possibilities we have.

We have to take the game to these teams in the way we did second half against Sunderland. I think he should have seen compelling evidence as to the effectiveness of that approach

Spurs - home
U***d - home
Arsenal - away
Villa - home
West Ham - away

These 5 in particular are a real test. If The Hammers aren't safe on the last game of the season (i.e. Hull pick up form with a new Manager) then they'll be taking it to us, also.

ant london wrote:I'm pretty optimistic to be honest.

Sunday was a disappointment in several ways but as lots have said, it was far from a fatal blow to our chances.

What I sincerely do hope is that Mancini has seen the value in throwing off the shackles somewhat. I'm glad that we have a run of games against similar types of team in the next 5 games. All of these games will see teams try to contain us, pressure us and stop us getting them on the break. It's a chance for Roberto to take the best parts of his discipline that he has brought and infuse it with some of the latent adventure and attacking possibilities we have.

We have to take the game to these teams in the way we did second half against Sunderland. I think he should have seen compelling evidence as to the effectiveness of that approach

I sort of agree. But the catch is - dont you need to let the other team break it's fire on your walls first? IE tire itself ready for the later onslaught. Open up earlier and we may be back to square one.

Catch 22!

john@staustell wrote:

simon12 wrote:I hate to say it but I think it`s now spuds to lose after Sundays draw:

Fulham - away 1
Everton - home 3
Wigan - home 3
Burnley - away 3
Birmingham - home 1
Spurs - home 1
U***d - home 1
Arsenal - away 0
Villa - home 1
West Ham - away 3

Optomistic 17 and its not like we`ve no talent. We need to start with 2 wingers and make opposition fullbacks too afraid to come forward but we dont. All the games that are left we need to set our stall out. We should be doing that at home anyway, and the arse struggle against teams that have a go all other way games are winnable however I dont think Bobby will play like that...Shame.

So if Sunderland had some monkey in goal and we won 4-1 - same team same players same shots - would you still say '...after our 4-1 win at Sunderland'?

You have got pessimism-itis. We are still in pole position due to our game(s) in hand and we have 6 home games. Get some valium.

You know what John I`m not pessimistic at all, and obviously with 3 points on the board my view would be different. The reallity is football is a 90 mins game and Gordon was only tested for 45 mins, if tested for 90 mins the score may have been 4-1. Like everyone who`s blue i want us to win I want Bobby to be a little more adventurous and not start defensive for our run in, home or away.

john@staustell wrote:
I sort of agree. But the catch is - dont you need to let the other team break it's fire on your walls first? IE tire itself ready for the later onslaught. Open up earlier and we may be back to square one.

Catch 22!

I know what you mean and I agree with the concerns but....aside from that (and more importantly) I love the wording of the above....like something from Braveheart!

Douglas Higginbottom wrote:
Aside from those wins we have had 2 defeats and 3 draws. The defeat at Everton probably shook Mancini who maybe thought all was well but we were well beaten by a good side.The Hull game I felt was coming as we had started to go into games with what seemed a defensive mindset and risking exactly what happened.A poor side was given momentum and capitalised with 2 goals and even with a much improved second half we fell short.The draws were interesting. Against Stoke we were again very poor and lacking in a positive approach as per the Bolton/Pompey games but at least battled for a decent draw and then again against Liverpool it wasn't a bad draw but it was a disappointingly negative performance.

Then after a great win at Chelsea albeit after a shocking first 20 minutes we go to Sunderland and again weren't at the races for the first half.If we keep starting games in first gear and conceding the momentum to sides we will find ourselves behing in the game before we get going and that inevitably will bring some poor results. You simply cannot keep going behind without expecting to lose some games.The 3 games against Fulham,Everton and Brum are matches where I think we must score the first goal. Playing as we have been with a very slow start will be asking for trouble so it's time for the team to get positive and I just hope Mancini has that message and starts the team on the front foot.

Agree with all.

I've been reluctant to slate Bobby for being too negative and too defensive since, after all, it was our defending that needed to improve. But when you look back at the games we've played under Mancini, it's obvious that we are only exciting when we need to be i.e when we go behind, when we score the first goal (Bolton, Pompey) we just stay on the back foot and soak up pressure.

Now, we are still in pole position for 4th spot so I don't want to be too critical, I just feel this prudent start to games will backfire on us again this season and we can't rely on always being able to bounce back, and wait until we concede to start playing real football.

Has the spuds game been arranged yet? What's the date on it?

Historically we need about 70 points to pretty much nail on 4th.

I think we could do it with less than that, so we need 20 points from 10 games, 2 point per game, win one draw one win one draw one.

Its still in our own hands, but i still think we will fuck it up.

Simons predictions are quite accurate, and should actually be enough to get us 4th

I think the spuds game will decide 4th place I honestly do them 3 points will be the decider.

IanBishopsHaircut wrote:Has the spuds game been arranged yet? What's the date on it?

I *thought* it had to a 12.45 Saturday Match - but no sign on the City site.

Current Points 50 potential 80 Forecast 70
Fulham v Man City
Man City v Everton
Man City v Wigan,
Burnley v Man City
Man City v Birmingham
Man City v Man Utd
Arsenal v Man City
Man City v Aston Villa
Man City v Spurs
West Ham v Man City

Current Points 51 potential 75 Forecast 67
Man Utd v Liverpool
Liverpool v Sunderland
Birmingham v Liverpool
Liverpool v Fulham
Liverpool v West Ham
Burnley v Liverpool
Liverpool v Chelsea
Hull v Liverpool

Current Points 52 Potential 79 Forecast 67
Stoke v Tottenham
Tottenham v Portsmouth
Sunderland v Tottenham
Tottenham v Arsenal
Tottenham v Chelsea
Man Utd v Tottenham
Tottenham v Bolton
Man City v Tottenham
Burnley v Tottenham

Current Points 46 Potential 76 Forecast 64
Wigan v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Wolverhampton,
Aston Villa v Sunderland,
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Bolton v Aston Villa,
Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Birmingham,
West Ham v Aston Villa
Man City v Aston Villa,
Aston Villa v Blackburn,

I am pleasantly surprised we are still in the running,

This seeming inability to win recently unless the opposition spontaneously self combust added to the deferred spurs game, and re-arranged Everton game has given us possibly the most difficult run in imaginable, but it is still in our own hands.

We HAVE to impose ourselves on the opposition more though, we have the players in all positions to do it. If we dont, Everton, Spurs, United and Arsenal will murder us for starters and it will all be over.

Douglas Higginbottom wrote:It all comes down to the same thing which is whether we play well and perhaps more importantly the approach we take into games.After the initial few games under Mancini we have had had a strange run of matches where we haven't really played well for the vast majority of the time. A few good halves but generally we have had a fairly defensive approach to games. 3 wins in that time. 2 at home v Pompey and Bolton where we actually played pretty rubbish and then that amazing result against Chelsea and I am still not sure if that was closer to the real City or a freak result.

Aside from those wins we have had 2 defeats and 3 draws. The defeat at Everton probably shook Mancini who maybe thought all was well but we were well beaten by a good side.The Hull game I felt was coming as we had started to go into games with what seemed a defensive mindset and risking exactly what happened.A poor side was given momentum and capitalised with 2 goals and even with a much improved second half we fell short.The draws were interesting. Against Stoke we were again very poor and lacking in a positive approach as per the Bolton/Pompey games but at least battled for a decent draw and then again against Liverpool it wasn't a bad draw but it was a disappointingly negative performance.

Then after a great win at Chelsea albeit after a shocking first 20 minutes we go to Sunderland and again weren't at the races for the first half.If we keep starting games in first gear and conceding the momentum to sides we will find ourselves behing in the game before we get going and that inevitably will bring some poor results. You simply cannot keep going behind without expecting to lose some games.The 3 games against Fulham,Everton and Brum are matches where I think we must score the first goal. Playing as we have been with a very slow start will be asking for trouble so it's time for the team to get positive and I just hope Mancini has that message and starts the team on the front foot.

Those next 5 games are all winnable but NOT I believe unless we shake ourselves and start from minute 1.I think we need a minimum of 4 wins out of the 5 to show how serious we are as contenders because the games after that are extremely tough.If we are not in pole position before Spurs at home I don't think we have a chance of 4th. There is only the Wigan game where I think we can win without playing really well.Even at Burnly if we let them come at us I fear we will concede and have a Sunderland situation trying to come from behind and might not win.

as usual Doug you are spot on.
Fulham wont lie down especially with their record against us, imo this is the game where the slow startitis has to end. i feel strangely confident though that Bob will 'do' something to stop us starting too deep, probs Vieira on from the start.
Everton is the big danger match for me,mainly as we have ghosts to put to rest.. start nervously and they will take full advantage and lock us into a battle we dont want to play on their terms. That is why the Fulham game we must show ourselves that we dont need to fear being hassled and can outplay our way out of trouble.

If those two games go well ( i would even take draws if the team showed reasonable improvement ) then the next games will be as near to routine as we can expect. ( Brum i would worry about apart from they cant play Joe Hart and i think it will effect them ).

I also think that we will crush Arsenal for some reason

Interesting points to note.

Our game against Spurs is pencilled in for the last week of the season, four days before the last match.

That might turn out to be the decider for fourth but I have just been alerted to this sequence of games that Spurs have within one week if they beat Fulham in the FA Cup.

Arsenal
Chelsea
Man Utd