Mancini vs Hughes, Statistically

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

I already have my tin hat on for all the "cunts" and "twats" etc. So fire at will.

I couldn't resist looking at the results under both managers during this season. They have had basically same squad to work with. I confess that oneof the reasons to look into this was to see whether there was any sense in talk about how Mancini ruined a perfectly good season where we were sailing for fourth spot. However the main reason was to see whether decision to sack Hughes made any statistical sense. Especially as every pundit and their dog have been pointing out that Mancini has already lost more games than Hughes this season. I only took league records into account as I believe Mancini was hired by owners with only one job in mind, to break into top 4.

So here we go.

Hughes:

P-----W----D-----L-----Points-----P.P.G.
17----7-----8-----2------29----------1.71


Mancini:

P-----W----D-----L-----Points-----P.P.G.
14----8-----3-----3------27----------1.93


Now the difference in points per game don't seem that big. Over the season they would equal 65 points under Hughes and 73 points under Mancini. Last season we would've finished 5th with Hughes' points tally and 4th with Mancini's. So in that sense it LOOKS to make sense STATISTICALLY.

And YES, I know they are just statistics but this is just to look at the situation from statistical point of view. There are LOT of other things to concern when sacking and replacing manager. And I don't know why I'm making excuses here. They are just statistical FACTS anyway (unless I counted something wrong, which is very much posible).

Any which way 8-3-3 is pretty good record by anyone's standards imo.

[Fidel Castro]

Interesting. If we really wanted to compare them properly, we should also take into account who the opponents have been.
I'm not bothered and definitely can't be arsed though ;-)

[Im_Spartacus]

We need to give him 3 years before we can start to judge Mancini.

By then he might just have managed to have the stadium totally empty at the final whistle.

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

Interesting. If we really wanted to compare them properly, we should also take into account who the opponents have been.
I'm not bothered and definitely can't be arsed though ;-)

HAHA

That's where I draw the line. There's chance in HELL I would be going through them game by game!

We need to give him 3 years before we can start to judge Mancini.

By then he might just have managed to have the stadium totally empty at the final whistle.

Like I said, there are lot of other things to consider when firing and hiring managers. Like the fact that we are in entertainment business and some people want to be entertained. This is JUST about statistics...... not to even prove that sacking was right thing to do.

[BlueinBosnia]

Statistically, I'm less than 2% more likely to create time in my schedule to watch the tripe we're serving up now after reading this.

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

Statistically, I'm less than 2% more likely to create time in my schedule to watch the tripe we're serving up now after reading this.

See! It had positive efect!

[Dunne's Half-Time Pint]

Can anyone be arsed to do goals scored/conceded? cos that accounts for some of the entertainment value... I think cup games should be taken into an account (to an extent as well), a pot this year would've been just what the doctor ordered.

None of it really matters though - whether this season/the appointment/our signings etc. were a success will all come down to the table at the end of the year... nothing else.

[Fidel Castro]

Am I the only one who didn't think last night was THAT bad???
I've criricised Mancini's boring style of play but I actually think it has improved a little bit since the Chelsea game.
We should have been 2-0 up at half-time last night and even without the sending off we would've scored. If anything, we actually played worse for a period after they went down to 10 men.

Still shitscared of facing Arse, rags, Spurs and Villa though, especially as we have failed miserably against every decent team we've come up against under Mancini (except the Chelski game of course!)

[Dunne's Half-Time Pint]

Am I the only one who didn't think last night was THAT bad???
I've criricised Mancini's boring style of play but I actually think it has improved a little bit since the Chelsea game.
We should have been 2-0 up at half-time last night and even without the sending off we would've scored. If anything, we actually played worse for a period after they went down to 10 men.

Still shitscared of facing Arse, rags, Spurs and Villa though, especially as we have failed miserably against every decent team we've come up against under Mancini (except the Chelski game of course!)

I hear you.

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

Can anyone be arsed to do goals scored/conceded? cos that accounts for some of the entertainment value... I think cup games should be taken into an account (to an extent as well), a pot this year would've been just what the doctor ordered.

None of it really matters though - whether this season/the appointment/our signings etc. were a success will all come down to the table at the end of the year... nothing else.

Personally, I DO agree with you that Cups matter and yes I enjoy goals going in as much as the next man. I was just trying to look this from owners/Chairmans perspective who were the men who made the decision. I am, and have always been, more interested about winning a cup than finishing 4th but I think that's what owners are aiming for first and foremost.

[BlueinBosnia]

Personally, I DO agree with you that Cups matter and yes I enjoy goals going in as much as the next man. I was just trying to look this from owners/Chairmans perspective who were the men who made the decision. I am, and have always been, more interested about winning a cup than finishing 4th but I think that's what owners are aiming for first and foremost.

Surely, with the possibility of TV rights being negotiated individually in the future, and the fact that attendance is a relatively major source of immediate income, then goals and entertainment value in general should be factored into the equation?

[Im_Spartacus]

Can anyone be arsed to do goals scored/conceded? cos that accounts for some of the entertainment value... I think cup games should be taken into an account (to an extent as well), a pot this year would've been just what the doctor ordered.

None of it really matters though - whether this season/the appointment/our signings etc. were a success will all come down to the table at the end of the year... nothing else.

Seeing as I have nothing better to do today......

Mancini P20 W11 D5 L5 F35 A22
Hughes P21 W9 D8 L2 F45 A29

Thats the records including cup games. Hughes' team scored nearly 30% more. However my complaint is not aboout goals scored as that to me doesnt necessarily equal entertainment. I certainly wasn't entertained for example when Burnley walked to a 2.0 lead, I was bloody fuming, nor was I entertained last night either side of the goals were were embarrassingly poor in all aspects of the game - which incidentally seemed a carbon copy of the blackburn game, woefully poor throughout, with a late flurry of goals.

I recognise that Mancini is effective, but I am pretty sure I am not alone in saying that I find it almost unwatchable.

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

Personally, I DO agree with you that Cups matter and yes I enjoy goals going in as much as the next man. I was just trying to look this from owners/Chairmans perspective who were the men who made the decision. I am, and have always been, more interested about winning a cup than finishing 4th but I think that's what owners are aiming for first and foremost.

Surely, with the possibility of TV rights being negotiated individually in the future, and the fact that attendance is a relatively major source of immediate income, then goals and entertainment value in general should be factored into the equation?

Obviously you would be right if this topic was just about whether the sacking of Hughes made sense in bigger picture. But that's the problem, it goes down to opinions and leads into arguments. I'm sure that if Robbie Manc is lifting Champion's League title for us in say four years, there will be few people who say "yeah, I'm happy about the result but not the performance. We were dead lucky that Barcelona gave away that pen. If Hughes was in charge we would've wong 13-4 and with style". And what can you reply to that? "Yeah, if you say so"? "In theory you could be bang on"? You can't really say anything. But you can't really argue with results can you? They are what they are.

So I was just putting one perspective in front.

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

Can anyone be arsed to do goals scored/conceded? cos that accounts for some of the entertainment value... I think cup games should be taken into an account (to an extent as well), a pot this year would've been just what the doctor ordered.

None of it really matters though - whether this season/the appointment/our signings etc. were a success will all come down to the table at the end of the year... nothing else.

Seeing as I have nothing better to do today......

Mancini P20 W11 D5 L5 F35 A22
Hughes P21 W9 D8 L2 F45 A29

Thats the records including cup games. Hughes' team scored nearly 30% more. However my complaint is not aboout goals scored as that to me doesnt necessarily equal entertainment. I certainly wasn't entertained for example when Burnley walked to a 2.0 lead, I was bloody fuming, nor was I entertained last night either side of the goals were were embarrassingly poor in all aspects of the game - which incidentally seemed a carbon copy of the blackburn game, woefully poor throughout, with a late flurry of goals.

I recognise that Mancini is effective, but I am pretty sure I am not alone in saying that I find it almost unwatchable.

About 20% actually.

[BlueinBosnia]

Can anyone be arsed to do goals scored/conceded? cos that accounts for some of the entertainment value... I think cup games should be taken into an account (to an extent as well), a pot this year would've been just what the doctor ordered.

None of it really matters though - whether this season/the appointment/our signings etc. were a success will all come down to the table at the end of the year... nothing else.

Seeing as I have nothing better to do today......

Mancini P20 W11 D5 L5 F35 A22
Hughes P21 W9 D8 L2 F45 A29

Thats the records including cup games. Hughes' team scored nearly 30% more. However my complaint is not aboout goals scored as that to me doesnt necessarily equal entertainment. I certainly wasn't entertained for example when Burnley walked to a 2.0 lead, I was bloody fuming, nor was I entertained last night either side of the goals were were embarrassingly poor in all aspects of the game - which incidentally seemed a carbon copy of the blackburn game, woefully poor throughout, with a late flurry of goals.

I recognise that Mancini is effective, but I am pretty sure I am not alone in saying that I find it almost unwatchable.

About 20% actually.

28.57% actually.

[Im_Spartacus]

Can anyone be arsed to do goals scored/conceded? cos that accounts for some of the entertainment value... I think cup games should be taken into an account (to an extent as well), a pot this year would've been just what the doctor ordered.

None of it really matters though - whether this season/the appointment/our signings etc. were a success will all come down to the table at the end of the year... nothing else.

Seeing as I have nothing better to do today......

Mancini P20 W11 D5 L5 F35 A22
Hughes P21 W9 D8 L2 F45 A29

Thats the records including cup games. Hughes' team scored nearly 30% more. However my complaint is not aboout goals scored as that to me doesnt necessarily equal entertainment. I certainly wasn't entertained for example when Burnley walked to a 2.0 lead, I was bloody fuming, nor was I entertained last night either side of the goals were were embarrassingly poor in all aspects of the game - which incidentally seemed a carbon copy of the blackburn game, woefully poor throughout, with a late flurry of goals.

I recognise that Mancini is effective, but I am pretty sure I am not alone in saying that I find it almost unwatchable.

About 20% actually.

28.57% actually.

You did the same calculation as me, but that doesnt take into account the extra game Hughes had, which as NQDP correctly says brings it closer to 20%, at around 22.4% or something like that.

[lets all have a disco]

Hughes's team WAS a lot more entertaining and i enjoyed going to watch that team more than Mancini's.
Mancini's team gets slightly more points overall and is lot more boring,The excitement for games isnt as high but still we get more points.


Still dont know which i prefer,i like value for my seasoncard money.

[BlueinBosnia]

Can anyone be arsed to do goals scored/conceded? cos that accounts for some of the entertainment value... I think cup games should be taken into an account (to an extent as well), a pot this year would've been just what the doctor ordered.

None of it really matters though - whether this season/the appointment/our signings etc. were a success will all come down to the table at the end of the year... nothing else.

Seeing as I have nothing better to do today......

Mancini P20 W11 D5 L5 F35 A22
Hughes P21 W9 D8 L2 F45 A29

Thats the records including cup games. Hughes' team scored nearly 30% more. However my complaint is not aboout goals scored as that to me doesnt necessarily equal entertainment. I certainly wasn't entertained for example when Burnley walked to a 2.0 lead, I was bloody fuming, nor was I entertained last night either side of the goals were were embarrassingly poor in all aspects of the game - which incidentally seemed a carbon copy of the blackburn game, woefully poor throughout, with a late flurry of goals.

I recognise that Mancini is effective, but I am pretty sure I am not alone in saying that I find it almost unwatchable.

About 20% actually.

28.57% actually.

Sorry, 23% more goals per game.

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

Can anyone be arsed to do goals scored/conceded? cos that accounts for some of the entertainment value... I think cup games should be taken into an account (to an extent as well), a pot this year would've been just what the doctor ordered.

None of it really matters though - whether this season/the appointment/our signings etc. were a success will all come down to the table at the end of the year... nothing else.

Seeing as I have nothing better to do today......

Mancini P20 W11 D5 L5 F35 A22
Hughes P21 W9 D8 L2 F45 A29

Thats the records including cup games. Hughes' team scored nearly 30% more. However my complaint is not aboout goals scored as that to me doesnt necessarily equal entertainment. I certainly wasn't entertained for example when Burnley walked to a 2.0 lead, I was bloody fuming, nor was I entertained last night either side of the goals were were embarrassingly poor in all aspects of the game - which incidentally seemed a carbon copy of the blackburn game, woefully poor throughout, with a late flurry of goals.

I recognise that Mancini is effective, but I am pretty sure I am not alone in saying that I find it almost unwatchable.

About 20% actually.

28.57% actually.

Not per game, which we obviously have to compare here. 22.44 % more per game.

[Dunne's Half-Time Pint]

Can anyone be arsed to do goals scored/conceded? cos that accounts for some of the entertainment value... I think cup games should be taken into an account (to an extent as well), a pot this year would've been just what the doctor ordered.

None of it really matters though - whether this season/the appointment/our signings etc. were a success will all come down to the table at the end of the year... nothing else.

Seeing as I have nothing better to do today......

Mancini P20 W11 D5 L5 F35 A22
Hughes P21 W9 D8 L2 F45 A29

Thats the records including cup games. Hughes' team scored nearly 30% more. However my complaint is not aboout goals scored as that to me doesnt necessarily equal entertainment. I certainly wasn't entertained for example when Burnley walked to a 2.0 lead, I was bloody fuming, nor was I entertained last night either side of the goals were were embarrassingly poor in all aspects of the game - which incidentally seemed a carbon copy of the blackburn game, woefully poor throughout, with a late flurry of goals.

I recognise that Mancini is effective, but I am pretty sure I am not alone in saying that I find it almost unwatchable.

About 20% actually.

In the cold light of day, i think we can agree that he was a little unlucky.
Straight comparison with Mancini for this season (i.e. these players) shows that there's not much between them.
If we'd have done what we looked like doing, looked so capable of, against Hull, Fulham and Burnley and he'd stayed we'd most likely be in the same sort of shape now pointswise, but playing more attractive stuff. The frustration for some of us, i'm sure, is that the games that we've lost under Mancini we've had our arses absolutely handed to us - never looked like breaking them down - and that wasn't really true of any of Hughes' defeats/draws (Spurs excepted).

Onwards and upwards though - I've seen positive signs since the Chelsea game - just need to adjust to our new style (like the players).