The mancityfans.net football forum

Now I'm not really a betting man, but can someone please explain how we can be such favourites with short odds for the various competitions we are in...

7/1 - 9/1 4th favourites for the Premiership

7/1 - 8/1 3nd favourites for the FA Cup

7/1 favourites for the Europa League

...and then at the same time mancini is the 2nd favourite manager to be saked at 5/1 behind Roberto Martinez?

*Scratches head*

We were 5th when Mark Hughes was sacked, and he was well on target for a top 4 finish and already in a cup semi final. Can't blame the bookies for not trusting Cook/Khaldoon

Saw a betting article last week. Strangely we were 5/1 all summer until recently, when punters started putting more money on Scum, Chelski and Arse. No rhyme or reason to that as we were getting our playing squad much stronger.

It's just a question of who puts money on what.

johnpb78 wrote:We were 5th when Mark Hughes was sacked, and he was well on target for a top 4 finish and already in a cup semi final. Can't blame the bookies for not trusting Cook/Khaldoon

We were NOT 5th when Hughes was sacked.

Niall Quinns Discopants wrote:

johnpb78 wrote:We were 5th when Mark Hughes was sacked, and he was well on target for a top 4 finish and already in a cup semi final. Can't blame the bookies for not trusting Cook/Khaldoon

We were NOT 5th when Hughes was sacked.

I knew I could count on you to correct me.

6th when he walked off the pitch after his final game to be precise then

Interestingly you can sell City on the points somewhere like Sporting Index at about 72 points, so if they fail this season you can still be quids in.

I know it's morally wrong to bet against the team you support but at least you can gain something out of it?

What I find staggering is how much we drifted after one game away to Spurs, which we drew. We were generally 5/1 across the board for the Prem on Saturday morning, as short as 9/2 with some firms. On Sunday morning 9/1 was available. That's a massive drift in price.

As for the Europa league, we have been shortening every week since the market opened. I'm on us at 10's E/W and I think Murph is on at 12's.

johnpb78 wrote:

Niall Quinns Discopants wrote:

johnpb78 wrote:We were 5th when Mark Hughes was sacked, and he was well on target for a top 4 finish and already in a cup semi final. Can't blame the bookies for not trusting Cook/Khaldoon

We were NOT 5th when Hughes was sacked.

I knew I could count on you to correct me.

6th when he walked off the pitch after his final game to be precise then

EIGHTH when the decision was made and, with 11 points from the previous 10 games, on target for closer to 14th than 4th!

Socrates wrote:

johnpb78 wrote:

Niall Quinns Discopants wrote:

johnpb78 wrote:We were 5th when Mark Hughes was sacked, and he was well on target for a top 4 finish and already in a cup semi final. Can't blame the bookies for not trusting Cook/Khaldoon

We were NOT 5th when Hughes was sacked.

I knew I could count on you to correct me.

6th when he walked off the pitch after his final game to be precise then

EIGHTH when the decision was made and, with 11 points from the previous 10 games, on target for closer to 14th than 4th!

That's similar form to the 6 points we've got from the last 6 games.

BlueinBosnia wrote:

Socrates wrote:

johnpb78 wrote:

Niall Quinns Discopants wrote:

johnpb78 wrote:We were 5th when Mark Hughes was sacked, and he was well on target for a top 4 finish and already in a cup semi final. Can't blame the bookies for not trusting Cook/Khaldoon

We were NOT 5th when Hughes was sacked.

I knew I could count on you to correct me.

6th when he walked off the pitch after his final game to be precise then

EIGHTH when the decision was made and, with 11 points from the previous 10 games, on target for closer to 14th than 4th!

That's similar form to the 6 points we've got from the last 6 games.

8 in the last 6 , 11 in the last 7', 14 in the last 8 or 9.

zuricity wrote:

BlueinBosnia wrote:

Socrates wrote:
EIGHTH when the decision was made and, with 11 points from the previous 10 games, on target for closer to 14th than 4th!

That's similar form to the 6 points we've got from the last 6 games.

8 in the last 6 , 11 in the last 7', 14 in the last 8 or 9.

Lost to Rags, drew with Arsenal, beat Villa, Lost to Spurs, drew with West Ham, drew with Spurs.

That's 6 points in my book.

BlueinBosnia wrote:

zuricity wrote:

BlueinBosnia wrote:

Socrates wrote:
EIGHTH when the decision was made and, with 11 points from the previous 10 games, on target for closer to 14th than 4th!

That's similar form to the 6 points we've got from the last 6 games.

8 in the last 6 , 11 in the last 7', 14 in the last 8 or 9.

Lost to Rags, drew with Arsenal, beat Villa, Lost to Spurs, drew with West Ham, drew with Spurs.

That's 6 points in my book.

I don't think you mean those teams, but last nine games were Everton l, wigan w, burnley w, birmingham w, united l, Arsenal d, villa w, spurs l, whu d .makes 14 in 9. Just to make even more interesting the points tally was even better just before those games too!

CityGer wrote:What I find staggering is how much we drifted after one game away to Spurs, which we drew. We were generally 5/1 across the board for the Prem on Saturday morning, as short as 9/2 with some firms. On Sunday morning 9/1 was available. That's a massive drift in price.

As for the Europa league, we have been shortening every week since the market opened. I'm on us at 10's E/W and I think Murph is on at 12's.

I have been surprised all summer how short we've been to win the league, 5/1 and shorter was a case of bookies taking no chance whatsoever and pricing us on max potential. Bookies did overreact to spurs game in % terms of drift but seeing they started from a skinny price originally I still don't think they are being overly generous, I'd say 9/1 is now a fair price, nothing more.

Yep did get 12/1 for europe, I think that tourny suits us, it's easier to win than the prem, yet we were a far bigger price for europe than we were for winning the prem, which made no sense to me.

zuricity wrote:I don't think you mean those teams, but last nine games were Everton l, wigan w, burnley w, birmingham w, united l, Arsenal d, villa w, spurs l, whu d .makes 14 in 9. Just to make even more interesting the points tally was even better just before those games too!

Sorry, was including this season's result, too. So it's 15 points from the last 10 games. So that's 8th or 9th place material.

Yeah, see what you mean now.

BlueinBosnia wrote:

zuricity wrote:I don't think you mean those teams, but last nine games were Everton l, wigan w, burnley w, birmingham w, united l, Arsenal d, villa w, spurs l, whu d .makes 14 in 9. Just to make even more interesting the points tally was even better just before those games too!

Sorry, was including this season's result, too. So it's 15 points from the last 10 games. So that's 8th or 9th place material.

Hughes out eh

15 is considerably better than 11. No need to discuss further.