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Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 12:30 pm**

This is quite interesting. I was just having a scan of skybet forthe 'top four finish' betting odds. Obviously Chelsea, Arse and the Scummers are seen as dead certs. Here's how the table will pan out if teams' finishing places reflect their repective 'top 4' odds:

1. Chelsea (1/100)
2. Scum (1/12)
3. Arsenal (1/5)
4. City (4/11)
5. Spurs (5/2)
6. Liverpool (13/2)
7. Everton (10/1)
8. Villa (12/1)
9. Sunderland (40/1)
10. Newcastle (50/1)
11. Birmingham (50/1)
12. Fulham (50/1)
13. Blackburn (66/1)
14. Bolton (100/1)
15. Stoke (150/1)
16. West Ham (200/1)
17. Wigan (200/1)
18. Wolves (250/1)
19. West Brom (500/1)
20. Blackpool (500/1)

With the exception of one or two teams moving two or three places up or down, I honestly don't think that the table will look a great deal different to this at the end of the season. Interesting that they think Villa will be further from the top four than Everton and Liverpool, as is the idea that Wolves will finish above West Brom by this reckoning. Bet they're right though.

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 12:46 pm**

I think we will finish above Arsenal, irrespective of the next game's result & I think Spurs may do the same. If I was forced to bet, I'd say we'll finish above rags too.

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 12:47 pm**

I`d swap wigan and wolves also swap stoke with blackburn and finally sunderland with newcastle.

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 12:53 pm**

interestingly skybet have the worst odds on City, most others have us much closer or even equal odds to Arsenal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 12:54 pm**

I reckon Liverpool can expect mid table at best this year...

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 1:17 pm**

IanBishopsHaircut wrote:I reckon Liverpool can expect mid table at best this year...

They're shit, but I think they'll rally at some point. Somewhere between 6th and 8th.

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 1:30 pm**

Alioune DVToure wrote:This is quite interesting. I was just having a scan of skybet forthe 'top four finish' betting odds. Obviously Chelsea, Arse and the Scummers are seen as dead certs. Here's how the table will pan out if teams' finishing places reflect their repective 'top 4' odds:

1. Chelsea (1/100)
2. Scum (1/12)
3. Arsenal (1/5)
4. City (4/11)
5. Spurs (5/2)
6. Liverpool (13/2)
7. Everton (10/1)
8. Villa (12/1)
-------------------------------
9. Sunderland (40/1)
10. Newcastle (50/1)
11. Birmingham (50/1)
12. Fulham (50/1)
13. Blackburn (66/1)
14. Bolton (100/1)
15. Stoke (150/1)
-------------------------------
16. West Ham (200/1)
17. Wigan (200/1)
18. Wolves (250/1)
19. West Brom (500/1)
20. Blackpool (500/1)

With the exception of one or two teams moving two or three places up or down, I honestly don't think that the table will look a great deal different to this at the end of the season. Interesting that they think Villa will be further from the top four than Everton and Liverpool, as is the idea that Wolves will finish above West Brom by this reckoning. Bet they're right though.

This middle group is interesting too (9th to 15th). I agree with the odds in that none of this group will either...
a) Come close to qualifying for Europe through the league, or
b) Be in any danger of being relegated come the end of the season.

The league has definitely split into three or four mini-leagues now.

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 1:33 pm**

Alioune DVToure wrote:
IanBishopsHaircut wrote:I reckon Liverpool can expect mid table at best this year...

They're shit, but I think they'll rally at some point. Somewhere between 6th and 8th.

They tried to rally last season and still weren't convincing.. this season they are even worse and rallying relies on the key players digging in.. it didnt happen last year, i dont see how they are going to do any better this year and are in a worse position all round.

At present they will be lucky to get back up to 10th imo.

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 4:32 pm**

Alioune DVToure wrote:This is quite interesting. I was just having a scan of skybet forthe 'top four finish' betting odds. Obviously Chelsea, Arse and the Scummers are seen as dead certs. Here's how the table will pan out if teams' finishing places reflect their repective 'top 4' odds:

1. Chelsea (1/100)
2. Scum (1/12)
3. Arsenal (1/5)
4. City (4/11)
5. Spurs (5/2)
6. Liverpool (13/2)
7. Everton (10/1)
8. Villa (12/1)
9. Sunderland (40/1)
10. Newcastle (50/1)
11. Birmingham (50/1)
12. Fulham (50/1)
13. Blackburn (66/1)
14. Bolton (100/1)
15. Stoke (150/1)
16. West Ham (200/1)
17. Wigan (200/1)
18. Wolves (250/1)
19. West Brom (500/1)
20. Blackpool (500/1)

With the exception of one or two teams moving two or three places up or down, I honestly don't think that the table will look a great deal different to this at the end of the season. Interesting that they think Villa will be further from the top four than Everton and Liverpool, as is the idea that Wolves will finish above West Brom by this reckoning. Bet they're right though.

I don't agree. Bookies not only have to make odds favourable to punters, but also have to look at what their losses would be, were they to cock up. Therefore, a team with a high proportion of armchair supporters, such as Liverpool or Newcastle, will have relatively shortened odds, because there's a bagfull of scallies wanting to place bets on them. Likewise, teams with lower support, such as Blackpool, will have lengthened odds.

From ninth place onwards, this aspect of setting odds seems to take over from rationale, and I don't see the lower half of the table panning out like that whatsoever.

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 8:08 pm**

The odds are shite, it's all about laying off.

Posted: **Thu Oct 14, 2010 8:36 pm**

Beefymcfc wrote:The odds are shite, it's all about laying off.

Absolutely correct I agree mate. Laying the dippers at 13/2 looks very enticing to me

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