The mancityfans.net football forum

Its a funny old game, this betting lark....

Chelsea were waaay behind us before they played last night. Since their result, they have gone from an average of 25/1 for the title, down to less than half that, with an average of 12/1. And because of last night's result our odds have more than doubled from around 33/1 to as high as 80/1.

So Chelsea are 12/1 and City are 80/1 to win the title. And we're two points ahead. I'm not an expert on this and I know the run in comes into play, along with experience, but 12/1 v 80/1???

Your thoughts on that please?!

Also, in the race for top four:

City average 1/4
Chelsea average 1/7
Spurs average 11/10

Now I know that's tight betweent he three teams and rightly so, but how in God's name are we favourites for top four ahead of Chelsea, yet their odds of WINNING the league are almost 8 TIMES GREATER than us?

Original Dub wrote:Its a funny old game, this betting lark....

Chelsea were waaay behind us before they played last night. Since their result, they have gone from an average of 25/1 for the title, down to less than half that, with an average of 12/1. And because of last night's result our odds have more than doubled from around 33/1 to as high as 80/1.

So Chelsea are 12/1 and City are 80/1 to win the title. And we're two points ahead. I'm not an expert in this and I know the run in comes into play, along with experiance, but 12/1 v 80/1???

Your thoughts on that please?!

Also, in the race for top four:

City average 1/4
Chelsea average 1/7
Spurs average 11/10

Now I know that's tight betweent he three teams and rightly so, but how in God's name are we favourites for top four ahead of Chelsea, yet their odds of WINNING the league are almost 8 TIMES GREATER than us?

OMG, you fucking moron.

Sorry, I just don't get it mate.

1/7 is shorter odds than 1/4.

Out of the three teams, they are the shortest odds for the Title and for the Top Four. It's all in line and you are outraged, I think maybe you should be outraged over your lack of being able to read odds.

Ok, well now that we've had Slim's amazing input, can anyone else explain it to me?

I've no idea how this betting works, what with not being a betting man and all that, but after the match last night, they showed on Sky how our odds had doubled and Chelsea's halved and I really don't get it TBH.

Read above.

It's exactly what I'm saying on the other thread. Great big boost for Chelsea, disaster for us.

Slim wrote:1/7 is shorter odds than 1/4.

Out of the three teams, they are the shortest odds for the Title and for the Top Four. It's all in line and you are outraged, I think maybe you should be outraged over your lack of being able to read odds.

oops, thought you'd logged off before my last post.

I'm not outraged at all, just don't know my arse from my elbow when it comes to betting, as you've pointed out, so I needed some explaining.

Ok I get that bit, but why do you think based on one result, their odds halved for the title and ours more than doubled?

Original Dub wrote:

Slim wrote:1/7 is shorter odds than 1/4.

Out of the three teams, they are the shortest odds for the Title and for the Top Four. It's all in line and you are outraged, I think maybe you should be outraged over your lack of being able to read odds.

oops, thought you'd logged off before my last post.

I'm not outraged at all, just don't know my arse from my elbow when it comes to betting, as you've pointed out, so I needed some explaining.

Ok I get that bit, but why do you think based on one result, their odds halved for the title and ours more than doubled?

They are champions who've now got a sniff of a championship. It will most likely improve their results.

When odds are 1/7 you need to put seven sniffs on to win one pound.
At 1/4 you only need to put four quid on for the same one pound win.

City are 14th in the form table, Chelsea are 4th, I would say that has lent weight to the odds changing.

I don't think either of us has a shot at winning the title so I don't think it matters. I am a bit baffled by the top four odds as I am not sure City have a better shot than Spurs at this point.

Slim wrote:City are 14th in the form table, Chelsea are 4th, I would say that has lent weight to the odds changing.

I don't think either of us has a shot at winning the title so I don't think it matters. I am a bit baffled by the top four odds as I am not sure City have a better shot than Spurs at this point.

Bit baffling I agree.

Ted Hughes wrote:

Slim wrote:City are 14th in the form table, Chelsea are 4th, I would say that has lent weight to the odds changing.

I don't think either of us has a shot at winning the title so I don't think it matters. I am a bit baffled by the top four odds as I am not sure City have a better shot than Spurs at this point.

Bit baffling I agree.

Two reasons for it:

1) We've been in the top 4 for months, Spurs have been in the top 4 only periodically.
2) They've still got to come to City for a six pointer and we'll be the bookies' favourites for that game.

I think it comes down to us being a bunch of bottling shithouses and Chelsea being a team that can achieve things when they need to.

Alioune DVToure wrote:

Ted Hughes wrote:

Slim wrote:City are 14th in the form table, Chelsea are 4th, I would say that has lent weight to the odds changing.

I don't think either of us has a shot at winning the title so I don't think it matters. I am a bit baffled by the top four odds as I am not sure City have a better shot than Spurs at this point.

Bit baffling I agree.

Two reasons for it:

1) We've been in the top 4 for months, Spurs have been in the top 4 only periodically.
2) They've still got to come to City for a six pointer and we'll be the bookies' favourites for that game.

Yeah probably, with us being the home team. Also Spurs have some nasty fixtures which, on paper are more difficult than ours. Although, if you compare the way both sides usually perform in those games when things get tough, it's Spurs by a mile.

How did that 6 pointer turn out last season?

Slim wrote:How did that 6 pointer turn out last season?

Point, but it won't factor too highly in the bookies' thinking. The main considerations will be:

1) Our home form
2) Spurs' away form
3) Our results versus other top-5
4) Spurs' results versus other top-5

and the like...

If our past results against Spurs were to play a big part, we'd be about 8-1. But we're a different team now - 4 points from Arsenal last season, 3 consecutive wins versus Chelsea etc.

Scatman wrote:I think it comes down to us being a bunch of bottling shithouses and Chelsea being a team that can achieve things when they need to.

This

So far this eason we have had 2 wins against those who could be called the top teams ( LPool,Scum,Arse,Spurs,Everton,Sunderland)
I know I am stretching it with Everton/Sunderland but it's still just 2 wins from 9 games against those teams.

But we have beaten Wigan,Newcastle,BPool,WBA,Fulham,bolton,Wolves,Villa.

Does that give confidence for our last 10 games which include Chelsea,Liverpool,Everton,Spurs ( we have beaten 2 of them at home though) plus BBurn,Bolton away.Definitely doable but we do need to up our game for the run in.

Original Dub wrote:Its a funny old game, this betting lark....

Chelsea were waaay behind us before they played last night. Since their result, they have gone from an average of 25/1 for the title, down to less than half that, with an average of 12/1. And because of last night's result our odds have more than doubled from around 33/1 to as high as 80/1.

So Chelsea are 12/1 and City are 80/1 to win the title. And we're two points ahead. I'm not an expert on this and I know the run in comes into play, along with experience, but 12/1 v 80/1???

Your thoughts on that please?!

Also, in the race for top four:

City average 1/4
Chelsea average 1/7
Spurs average 11/10

Now I know that's tight betweent he three teams and rightly so, but how in God's name are we favourites for top four ahead of Chelsea, yet their odds of WINNING the league are almost 8 TIMES GREATER than us?

were not consistent on our travels enough