Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby gillie » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:17 pm

Well Scouse1 play this Friday we play Sunday and then we play Scouse1 on Tuesday enough said.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Beefymcfc » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:21 pm

gillie wrote:Well Scouse1 play this Friday we play Sunday and then we play Scouse1 on Tuesday enough said.

Quite simple, 5 days, 4 days for most yet we've been penned in by Sky for 2 days. 48 hours between games whilst most get double. If you can't see that then I don't know what you would.

If we are going to make a change to the Sky 4 we'll do it the hard way. No choice!
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Arjan Van Schotte » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:35 pm

Dameerto wrote:
Arjan Van Schotte wrote:
Dameerto wrote:There are still six fixtures, regardless of when they were decided, with a cumulative probability taking each into account.


so you're discounting the fact that we will never (i think the last time was grimsby at home but am probably wrong) be at home on the same night as them and putting it down to conspiracy? rather than the FACT that once the PL fixtures have been decided we'll have a 50/50 chance of being either home or away after each one?


50/50 chance we will be at home for ONE fixture (which is a half). For six it's 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 which is CUMULATIVE. You're making the same mistake as Lev.


i don't think i am but hey ho.

as for the other conspiracy nonsense that people are spouting, i can only say grow up.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Arjan Van Schotte » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:38 pm

Beefymcfc wrote:
Arjan Van Schotte wrote:
Dameerto wrote:There are still six fixtures, regardless of when they were decided, with a cumulative probability taking each into account.


so you're discounting the fact that we will never (i think the last time was grimsby at home but am probably wrong) be at home on the same night as them and putting it down to conspiracy? rather than the FACT that once the PL fixtures have been decided we'll have a 50/50 chance of being either home or away after each one?

We have 6 away games.


we didn't mate, we had three away games. and they still went out. to basel. conspiracy...
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Dameerto » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:38 pm

I suggest some bedtime reading on probabilities then.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Arjan Van Schotte » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:42 pm

Dameerto wrote:I suggest some bedtime reading on probabilities then.


i suggest some bedtime reading on how many away games we played in the CL, and the FACT that the PL games are decided first, and that we played the same cycle, but in reverse in the PL as the rags.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Beefymcfc » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:50 pm

Arjan Van Schotte wrote:
Beefymcfc wrote:
Arjan Van Schotte wrote:
Dameerto wrote:There are still six fixtures, regardless of when they were decided, with a cumulative probability taking each into account.


so you're discounting the fact that we will never (i think the last time was grimsby at home but am probably wrong) be at home on the same night as them and putting it down to conspiracy? rather than the FACT that once the PL fixtures have been decided we'll have a 50/50 chance of being either home or away after each one?

We have 6 away games.


we didn't mate, we had three away games. and they still went out. to basel. conspiracy...

So, after every game in the CL which was 6 we had 3 away games?
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Arjan Van Schotte » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:55 pm

Beefymcfc wrote:
Arjan Van Schotte wrote:
Beefymcfc wrote:
Arjan Van Schotte wrote:
Dameerto wrote:There are still six fixtures, regardless of when they were decided, with a cumulative probability taking each into account.


so you're discounting the fact that we will never (i think the last time was grimsby at home but am probably wrong) be at home on the same night as them and putting it down to conspiracy? rather than the FACT that once the PL fixtures have been decided we'll have a 50/50 chance of being either home or away after each one?

We have 6 away games.


we didn't mate, we had three away games. and they still went out. to basel. conspiracy...

So, after every game in the CL which was 6 we had 3 away games?


i thought we were talking about after away CL games. even so - it's just the way the PL fixtures were. neither would have changed the cycle. unlucky.

or do you really think it was a conspiracy? if they'd officially used the uefa co--eeeeficient then the result woulda been the same.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Beefymcfc » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:55 pm

Cottagers
Rovers
Rags
Rangers
Dippers
Chelsea


6 games, all away from home after a CL game. Definately not a conspiracy, just random luck ffs!

Am off to watch an Idiot Abroad, at least I know what I'm getting there!
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Beefymcfc » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:02 pm

Seperate post I know but:

1. How many people think that the CL away games were just random?

2. Who fucking hates the Rag twats to bits and think they are cheating fucktards who should be strung up by their tiny Bollox?
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby CityGer » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:03 pm

Beefymcfc wrote:Cottagers
Rovers
Rags
Rangers
Dippers
Chelsea

6 games, all away from home after a CL game. Definately not a conspiracy, just random luck ffs!

Am off to watch an Idiot Abroad, at least I know what I'm getting there!


Full of conspiracies. Everyone hates Karl, they're all out to get him.

He does get massive credit for using the term 'piss arsing about'. One of my favs.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby gillie » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:18 pm

I am not totally sure but i think we were the only team from the prem who where in the CL that had to play an away league game after every CL game.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Lev Bronstein » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:50 am

Dameerto wrote:
Arjan Van Schotte wrote:
Dameerto wrote:There are still six fixtures, regardless of when they were decided, with a cumulative probability taking each into account.


so you're discounting the fact that we will never (i think the last time was grimsby at home but am probably wrong) be at home on the same night as them and putting it down to conspiracy? rather than the FACT that once the PL fixtures have been decided we'll have a 50/50 chance of being either home or away after each one?


50/50 chance we will be at home for ONE fixture (which is a half). For six it's 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 which is CUMULATIVE. You're making the same mistake as Lev.


Nay, nay and thrice times nay. The configuration of home and away games for the Cl group stage is one event, either AHAHAH OR HAHAHA - that's two possibilities. It can't be CULMATIVE, or else, if each game was independent you could have a possibility of playing six away games or six home games or any combination of the two,

There may be many, reasons to think that Sky, the Prem and the rest smooth the way to their success, eg the mindset of referees, the media and so on. On it's own, he CL fixtures aren't one of them. As I said though, if this sort of thing happens year after year, then we have a case.

There may well be institutional obstacles put in our way, but let's correctly identify them and save our ammunition.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Dameerto » Wed Dec 28, 2011 4:44 am

Lev, we're talking about playing an AWAY league game after each CL group stage game.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Dameerto » Wed Dec 28, 2011 4:48 am

As an exercise in logic, what you're proposing is that there is exactly the same probability for playing an infinite number of away league games after CL games (assuming we played an infinite number of CL games in one season) as there is for a single game - which is just not logical at all.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Lev Bronstein » Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:23 am

Dameerto wrote:Lev, we're talking about playing an AWAY league game after each CL group stage game.

Me too.

As long as CL group games are held on alternate weeks AND we're away on alternate weeks, then we're EITHER at home after each CL group game OR away. Only two sets of fixtures are possible so the probability of playing either set of fixures is 1/2.

As for your second post, you've just exposed the difficulties of infinity mathematics.

Fortunately, we don't need to worry about that as Sky have yet to impose the infinitely long season and UEFA haven't developed the notion of an infinite number of CL group games.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby CityFanFromRome » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:01 am

I suspect that Lev might be right; it's logical, and I also checked Napoli's games for a comparison; well, after the CL games they played 4 times away and two times at home, but only because in those two weeks there had been a midweek league game intervening to modify the alternance of home/away.

Just to be sure I checked Inter's games too, and they played four times at home and two away, because of the same reason of the midweek games.

Another aspect to consider is who you have to play after a CL game; if you have to go into a big match with a title challenger is one thing, if you have to play the weakest team in the league it's a completely different matter.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Blue Since 76 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:46 am

Ignoring the various maths lessons, the PL fixtures were arranged before the CL was done. However, the weeks for the CL games were known. Whoever put the PL fixtures together decided it was fair that we played away after every game. Can you imagine Taggart's face if that had happened to him? Not that it would of course.

The idea that there has to be a strict home then away is bollox as well. This week is a perfect example where everyone seems to have two home or two away games. Not sure which genius decided half the fans would get no Xmas football whilst the other half probably have a missus who's not speaking to them.
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Beefymcfc » Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:36 am

Bloody hell, is this a maths class. All's people wanted to see were to numbers intervened by a dash, ie. 32/1.

Now, in 2 numbers, what is the probability?
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Re: Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories

Postby Lev Bronstein » Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:47 am

Beefymcfc wrote:Bloody hell, is this a maths class. All's people wanted to see were to numbers intervened by a dash, ie. 32/1.

Now, in 2 numbers, what is the probability?


1/2

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