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There are four teams going for 4th spot (Assuming a top three of City, Filth and Spuds)
They all need the money that CL potentially brings for different reasons.
Three of them will miss out, but which club will failure impact most on? Dippers, Chelsea, Arse or Newcastle?

It has to be Arsenal imo. Liverpool seem to have some money in their pockets and can sign players even if they finish outside top 4, though it will be interesting to see what's their pulling power on really top notch lads. so I don't see a big difference there.
Chelsea has enough money and they can easily imo sell a "project" to top players even without UCL for one season (I think AVB has to go though).
But Arsenal. They will lose their best player in RVP and Whinger will only sign an 18 year old promising player from RC Lens. After that they really are in a freefall. won't even be close to 4th spot in 2012-13 if that's the case.

Will be nice to see what happens to Newcastle though. I can see a (lower) mid table finish next season for them if they don't finish 4th which would allow them to spend heavily. But even with top4 spot and heavy spending I wouldn't be surprised if their next season turned out to be failure

Piccsnumberoneblue wrote:There are four teams going for 4th spot (Assuming a top three of City, Filth and Spuds)
They all need the money that CL potentially brings for different reasons.
Three of them will miss out, but which club will failure impact most on? Dippers, Chelsea, Arse or Newcastle?

Arsenal for me, it's there saving grace that they always make it.

Chelsea wi just sack and re hire as usual, Liverpool are now used to being shit and Newcastle didn't dare dream of top 4 at start of the season so can't expect it as much as they just hope.

Piccsnumberoneblue wrote:There are four teams going for 4th spot (Assuming a top three of City, Filth and Spuds)
They all need the money that CL potentially brings for different reasons.
Three of them will miss out, but which club will failure impact most on? Dippers, Chelsea, Arse or Newcastle?

Chelsea or Arse.

Liverpool are in more of a building stage and with (probably) at least one trophy they'll probably be alright with that. Plus Kenny has brought some decent results and doesnt really have THAT much pressure on him so will be allowed to build again next season.

Newcastle - it would have been an unexpected bonus and Pardew has done brilliantly either way.

Arsenal - well, that speaks for itself really, they're getting a bit tired with Wenger and if they get rid, i can see them struggling even more. The fans will be devastated and the players will feel the pressure/leave.

Chelsea - total disaster. AVB will be sacked, new manager in, will have to rebuild which Roman wont like. If Roman tightens the pursestrings and/or new manager doesnt realise that an overhaul is needed then they could be in trouble again. IMO, unlike Arsenal, the past-it players wont want to leave, and will instead do their best to stay on the payroll, creating possible further damage.

Thats how i see it anyway.

Yffi_88 wrote:Plus Kenny has brought some decent results and doesnt really have THAT much pressure on him so will be allowed to build again next season.

Kenny has brought in very average result apart from the CC Final place imo. if he was just some Italian/French/Dutch mercenary manager they (scouse fans and media) would be calling for his head.

Pretty Boy Lee wrote:

Piccsnumberoneblue wrote:There are four teams going for 4th spot (Assuming a top three of City, Filth and Spuds)
They all need the money that CL potentially brings for different reasons.
Three of them will miss out, but which club will failure impact most on? Dippers, Chelsea, Arse or Newcastle?

Arsenal for me, it's there saving grace that they always make it.

Chelsea wi just sack and re hire as usual, Liverpool are now used to being shit and Newcastle didn't dare dream of top 4 at start of the season so can't expect it as much as they just hope.

Arsenal still have payments for that stadium draining cash and I've always felt they needed CL to avoid disaster. But both Chelsea and Scouse still need to spend big to compete for the title. That in turn has implications on FFP. How much do you think Liverpool would need to lash out to break the top four again and then how much more to win the big un?
I think it's all a bonus for Geordies, but can you imagine if they made 4th? An extra competitor and denying three of the "Sky 4" big money football. It could even mean that Arsenal and Chelsea don't get ANY Euro football at all.

I don't think any of the clubs will be in trouble if they miss out. I'd say they all need it as much as each other bar Newcastle to whom it would be a huge unexpected bonus.

I look at this more from the angle of what is best for us and from that perspective I really don't want Liverpool to qualify. They have spent some serious cash, albeit poorly, but there surely isn't a bottomless pit and the longer they go without champs league football the better. Arsenal and Chelsea qualifying can't hurt us. Perhaps Liverpool qualifying could.

Keep the dipper cunts down as long as possible.

dazby wrote:Keep the dipper cunts down as long as possible.

Yep. I'm with you on this. Keep these cunts down and a serious decline from the scum... Then lets battle with chelsea and spurs for the major honours and leave these two sets of shitheads argue over what they used to do better.

At what point does the PL lose the 4th place Champions Lg spot for lack of performance in the comp ? I'm happy enough for City to fight for top 3, but imagine the panic amongst some of the others if that situation became the norm ?

I can see us doing quite well in the CL next season but unless the rags spend, I can't see them going a long way & none of the others seem that well equipped, so next season's overall performance by PL clubs in the Chump could be as bad or worse than this season.

The rags would be under big pressure if it went down to 3 CL places.

Ted Hughes wrote:At what point does the PL lose the 4th place Champions Lg spot for lack of performance in the comp ? I'm happy enough for City to fight for top 3, but imagine the panic amongst some of the others if that situation became the norm ?

I can see us doing quite well in the CL next season but unless the rags spend, I can't see them going a long way & none of the others seem that well equipped, so next season's overall performance by PL clubs in the Chump could be as bad or worse than this season.

The rags would be under big pressure if it went down to 3 CL places.

I was thinking about this in the context of "do we want Chelsea to beat Napoli?"

Ted Hughes wrote:At what point does the PL lose the 4th place Champions Lg spot for lack of performance in the comp ? I'm happy enough for City to fight for top 3, but imagine the panic amongst some of the others if that situation became the norm ?

I can see us doing quite well in the CL next season but unless the rags spend, I can't see them going a long way & none of the others seem that well equipped, so next season's overall performance by PL clubs in the Chump could be as bad or worse than this season.

The rags would be under big pressure if it went down to 3 CL places.

Is removal of 4th place CL qualification a likely outcome?

Didn't Arsenal had a russian in the board of investors? Since Arsene took this new strategy with youngsters and unknown players in 2004, they didn't won anything, but their profit went up. So i really think they deserve what happend to them in the last year. No one told them to do this, while they were one of the best teams in the Premiership and now look where that got them.
Imho, all three "big" clubs look awful, maybe the Scouse army are a little better that the others, while Chelski neede a switch of generations, like AVB wants to (this is the only thing that i agree with him), but the way he does that will get him sacked.

Who needs it the most? I don't know, but i would like to be Newcastle, but i don't think that Ashley will spend al the UCL venue wisely.

There are so many reasons for us all to pray that Newcastle get that 4th spot. With the FFP coming into play, it could seriously damage the old order for a long time, even the playing field and posiibly allow the Prem to become the interesting competetive League it once was.

Arsenal:...moved from Highbury and built the Emirates to allow them to increase matchday income and compete with the Madrids, Barcas and rags. That was the plan. When they loaded the debt, they factored in the costs being offset by the CL cash that they believed would always be theirs for the spending. Wenger is failing and they need to spend big. Their income announced this year is down by £23M on last. They could be in a very dodgy position.

Liverpool:...have never really gained from the rewritten CL financial rules but have managed to keep their income levels high enough to spend heavily on players in the recent past. Their problem now is that they despite heavy spending on players, they still need to spend heavily on players and desperately need a new stadium...more spending. Like Arsenal, their income levels dropped last year by a massive £22M.

Chelsea:...are in a more complex position, like City, they have access to unlimited funds but are encumbered by the FFP and maybe unable to use them. Like City, they need to balance their books as there is a massive gap between income and expenditure. They have less room for monoeuvre than City. They have been working at this for longer, so are already nearer their potential earning capacity. Their income also diminished in 2012 from 2011 by £6.1M.

NOTE...MY APOLOGIES...THOSE FIGURES SHOULD BE EUROS AND NOT POUNDS STERLING...But the argument stands.

There are other relevant factors worth noting that are pertinent to the positions of those clubs.

Liverpool, the rags, Arsenal and Chelsea, as stated previously have been marketting themselves heavily for a number of years and are all near the upper levels of their potentials, giving them less room for income improvement than any newer club on the block (City, Newcastle, Spurs).
Conversely, City, Newcastle and Spurs therefore have a much higher potential for improved income, which will help them find investement funds for the future.

If the rags, Liverpool,Arsenal or Chelsea still wish to compete on a European playing field with Barca or Real madrid, they will not be happy to note that Barca increased their considerable income in 2012 by E52.6M compared to 2011 and Madrid increased their considerable income by E40.9M.

Below are the top 12 clubs and their income in Euros, showing just how far the established English clubs have fallen behind the top 2, especially considering some of their decreased income (shown above). Further, it also shows just how much potential City, Spurs and Newcastle have to increse their income. Remember too; that the new (reported) City chief exec has been reported to have been given the target of doubling City's income.

Madrid....479.5M
Barca......450.7M
rags.......367M
Bayern....321.6M
Arsenal....251.1M
Chelsea...249.8M
Milan......235.1M
Inter......211.4M
L'pool.....203.3M
Schalke...202.4M
Spurs.....181M

CITY.....169.6m

I split those posts, for ease of reading. Hope they help.

arsenal for me new stadium to pay for, there was a guy on 5live phone in been a gooner for 30 years season ticket holder stopped going this season, cos he could see what was happening letting all their best players go etc, so maybe a lot more will do the same he also said his season ticket last season cost him three grand so it aint cheap.

Scatman wrote:

Ted Hughes wrote:At what point does the PL lose the 4th place Champions Lg spot for lack of performance in the comp ? I'm happy enough for City to fight for top 3, but imagine the panic amongst some of the others if that situation became the norm ?

I can see us doing quite well in the CL next season but unless the rags spend, I can't see them going a long way & none of the others seem that well equipped, so next season's overall performance by PL clubs in the Chump could be as bad or worse than this season.

The rags would be under big pressure if it went down to 3 CL places.

Is removal of 4th place CL qualification a likely outcome?

It's based on how well the teams from each country perform in Europe over a period of time as far as I know. If I remember rightly, the Prem had slipped a bit recently & some countries had got closer to taking the extra spot (can't remember who ). I don't know how those countries have performed since though; they could have done worse than us.

Just now, quite a few squads need rebuilding, so if it went down to 3 places before they finish doing that, it could get very interesting, especially for the rags, as the various owners will start to panic.

Arsenal have run such a tight ship that they can absorb the financial shock of missing out. In theory they need CLQ to be in the market for the best players, but in reality they've never shopped for those players anyway.

Liverpool haven't even been in contention since 2009 and would be happy just to improve on last year, especially with Arse and Chavs moving in the opposite direction.

Newcastle haven't budgeted for big things and are in a no-lose situation. They can just go out and enjoy themselves for the rest of the season.

It would be worst news for Chelsea in my opinion. Abramovich would be compelled to make another pointless change of manager and would start interfering in the football side of things again, pressing his marquee pensioner signings onto whoever his new boss is without any emphasis on long-term squad-building.

Good idea for a thread, this. Some interesting points been mentioned.

Alioune DVToure wrote:Arsenal have run such a tight ship that they can absorb the financial shock of missing out. In theory they need CLQ to be in the market for the best players, but in reality they've never shopped for those players anyway.

Liverpool haven't even been in contention since 2009 and would be happy just to improve on last year, especially with Arse and Chavs moving in the opposite direction.

Newcastle haven't budgeted for big things and are in a no-lose situation. They can just go out and enjoy themselves for the rest of the season.

It would be worst news for Chelsea in my opinion. Abramovich would be compelled to make another pointless change of manager and would start interfering in the football side of things again, pressing his marquee pensioner signings onto whoever his new boss is without any emphasis on long-term squad-building.

Good idea for a thread, this. Some interesting points been mentioned.

But since Arsenal stopped shopping for those players, they have got gradually worse & the amount of money needed to get them up to scratch is getting higher & higher. Next, Van Persie will either be gone or be injured again & if that happens, they are utterly fucked & the Wiltshires & Chamberlains, who they expect to build around, will actually be looking at going elsewhere.