david yearsley wrote:Im_Spartacus wrote:Why are they being "forced" into measures like this? The flotation in Singapore would have necessitated something similar.
In terms of the options available to them, a partial flotation makes sense, although debt will simply be swapped for equity, as there will be shareholders requiring dividen payments now rather than banks wanting their interest and repayments. It just means they will never have to pay back £100m of the funds used in the leveraged takeover. Going back public simply means that the Glazers bought 100% of a club for £800m, and are now selling say 7% of a club worth £1.5bn to raise £100m. This leaves them with a net asset worth 1.1bn and only around 25% debt
300m profit in 7 years using someone else's money is not bad going, gotta take your hat off to them for following the first rule of business, always use someone elses money.
I would bet my life they will be looking to sell before baconface gets much older or city get much more dominant, as the global brand would steuggle to generate the current levels of income without a trophy for a few years.
What sort of figure would we be looking at in divi payments per annum Spart?
It depends on what sort of stock it is being marketed as. If it is expected to be a growth stock, the divis can be kept very low, maybe 1-2%. If the shares are marketed as an income stock , then anywhere upwards of 3%. Either way, the dividends on £100m of shares will be less than they currently pay in interest.
United in the past were a good (albeit risky) growth stock upto the point the glazers took them over, but given that growth of a business is based on increasing the revenue base and controlling costs, there are additional risk factors with a football club that are very seasonal, such as success on the pitch. Success on the pitch requires massive investment in the modern game, which the owners of the remainig 93% of the business (the glazers) appear reluctant to do. There is also, as I alluded to a huge future problem with regards an ageing manager, who, if he went suddenly (or for that matter whenever he goes), is going to cause significant turmoil because of the fact that he is fundamental to the clubs success.
Pre Glazer, the share price was around £2.50, paying a total annual dividend of about 2.5p, so 1% - obviously in todays terms that would equate to £1m based on the £100m proposed flotation.
There was a clear lack of appetite for the proposed flotation in Singapore, and whilst United have said they have shelved that because the market is volatile, the fact is, a football club's share, with the exception of United has always been volatile - but with the potential issue of Ferguson's demise (which wasnt necessarily an acute concern in the 90s), I personally wouldn't touch it with a shitty stick, as it is just too big a risk. For one person to be so utterly dominant, and for a business to be so completely dependant upon one person is not a good thing when looking to buy shares.
The £100m (the Singapore flotation was supposed to be £3/400m) might though be a clue, that they are not going to necessarily seek institutional investors, as they could probably sell that much to fans who would just buy out of sentiment, which is why I think this is a good plan from the Glazers