fa cup 1/4 final draw

[BlueinBosnia]

Wtf? How do we keep getting drawn away? 7 in a row

Seriously.

I also know we got a okay-ish draw again, but we have drawn Prem teams nearly every time for a while now (I know more likely now) except last round, and then it's against one of the best Championship clubs this season.

There's a 30% chance of us being drawn against another Prem team in the 3rd round each year.
This year, there was a 39% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in the 4th round (didn't happen).
This year, there was a 47% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in the 5th round.
This year, there was a 71% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in the 6th round.

Overall, there was a 4% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in each round. That didn't happen. Even if it did, it wouldn't be particularly unusual.

There was also a 0.3% chance of us being drawn away to a Prem team in each round. That's also not particularly unbelievable odds, even if it had have happened.

As for being drawn away 7 times in a row - it's also not overly unlikely. There are (about to be) 5 of us in my household, each with a 2 in their day of birth (2nd, 23rd, 28th, etc.). That's twice as unlikely to happen as us being drawn away 7 times in a row, even though it's not an unbelievable occurrence in and of itself.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/ ... s-12662492

In the FA Cup and League Cup this season and last, the Blues have been drawn away in the last nine ties, and each time they have been pitted against opposition either from the Premier League or the top six promotion places in the Championship.

In fact, their draw away to promotion-chasing Huddersfield in the fifth round of this season's FA Cup was the ONLY time in those nine draws they have not drawn a Premier League club.

We put the statistics to Manchester University lecturer Kees van Schaik, an expert in probability, and he came up with the incredible result.

He calculated that the chances of being drawn away nine times on the bounce are around 512-1.

And he then worked out that the odds of those nine draws all being against one of the top 26 teams still in the competition comes in at 199-1.

And if you combine the probability of the two, the result is enough to make even the sanest fan a little paranoid. Said Dr van Schaik: “The probability that Man City draws against a top team AND is the away team in all nine below draws is as small as approximately 0.00001, which in terms of odds is, pretty much, one in 100,000."

That stat is calculated based on the notion that the top 26 stays constant, which it doesn't. Huddersfield were hovering around the relegation zone at points last season when draws were made, Norwich (the first team in the streak) are now 8th in the Championship, and were much lower when previous rounds were drawn, and Aston Villa are 17th. Open it up to positions that these teams were in when each round was drawn, and the odds are much, much higher.

Actually looking at the games, have we been drawn against any team that was in the Top 8 of the Prem when a draw was made? Looking at the 9:

Norwich - Relegation zone
Villa - Relegation zone
Chelsea - Around 12th
Swansea - Around relegation zone
Rags - Around 9th, I think
West Ham - 11th when the draw was made (from my recollection)
Crystal Palace - Relegation contenders
Huddersfield - Championship
Boro - Relegation contenders

So, 5 relegation contenders (arguably with more pressing issues on their plates), 3 that were in mid-table positions, and one outside the top flight.

[PrezIke]

Wtf? How do we keep getting drawn away? 7 in a row

Seriously.

I also know we got a okay-ish draw again, but we have drawn Prem teams nearly every time for a while now (I know more likely now) except last round, and then it's against one of the best Championship clubs this season.

There's a 30% chance of us being drawn against another Prem team in the 3rd round each year.
This year, there was a 39% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in the 4th round (didn't happen).
This year, there was a 47% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in the 5th round.
This year, there was a 71% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in the 6th round.

Overall, there was a 4% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in each round. That didn't happen. Even if it did, it wouldn't be particularly unusual.

There was also a 0.3% chance of us being drawn away to a Prem team in each round. That's also not particularly unbelievable odds, even if it had have happened.

As for being drawn away 7 times in a row - it's also not overly unlikely. There are (about to be) 5 of us in my household, each with a 2 in their day of birth (2nd, 23rd, 28th, etc.). That's twice as unlikely to happen as us being drawn away 7 times in a row, even though it's not an unbelievable occurrence in and of itself.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/ ... s-12662492

In the FA Cup and League Cup this season and last, the Blues have been drawn away in the last nine ties, and each time they have been pitted against opposition either from the Premier League or the top six promotion places in the Championship.

In fact, their draw away to promotion-chasing Huddersfield in the fifth round of this season's FA Cup was the ONLY time in those nine draws they have not drawn a Premier League club.

We put the statistics to Manchester University lecturer Kees van Schaik, an expert in probability, and he came up with the incredible result.

He calculated that the chances of being drawn away nine times on the bounce are around 512-1.

And he then worked out that the odds of those nine draws all being against one of the top 26 teams still in the competition comes in at 199-1.

And if you combine the probability of the two, the result is enough to make even the sanest fan a little paranoid. Said Dr van Schaik: “The probability that Man City draws against a top team AND is the away team in all nine below draws is as small as approximately 0.00001, which in terms of odds is, pretty much, one in 100,000."

That stat is calculated based on the notion that the top 26 stays constant, which it doesn't. Huddersfield were hovering around the relegation zone at points last season when draws were made, Norwich (the first team in the streak) are now 8th in the Championship, and were much lower when previous rounds were drawn, and Aston Villa are 17th. Open it up to positions that these teams were in when each round was drawn, and the odds are much, much higher.

Actually looking at the games, have we been drawn against any team that was in the Top 8 of the Prem when a draw was made? Looking at the 9:

Norwich - Relegation zone
Villa - Relegation zone
Chelsea - Around 12th
Swansea - Around relegation zone
Rags - Around 9th, I think
West Ham - 11th when the draw was made (from my recollection)
Crystal Palace - Relegation contenders
Huddersfield - Championship
Boro - Relegation contenders

So, 5 relegation contenders (arguably with more pressing issues on their plates), 3 that were in mid-table positions, and one outside the top flight.

Is it? It is based upon where each club was position wise when the draws were made.

Your second point is an entirely different argument than the one being made, and is problematic in that you are not calculating the probability of any club being drawn against the top 9 clubs in the Premier League, and seeking to find another reason to claim that we have not had it so bad with draws. If you wish to back your claim I believe without making such calculations you would have to go do the same thing with all of the other top 9 clubs.

The point is we have consistently, with an unusually high level of unlikeliness according to the evidence, been drawn against generally higher quality clubs, which means ZERO League 1, 2 and non league teams over the last 9 draws. That does not mean there is a conspiracy, but it certainly is understandable, as the article suggests, for our fans to feel aggrieved.

Interestingly enough I suspect this likely correlates to why we also have not seen too many EDS and young fringe squad players get many games compared to other clubs of similar stature. To check this you might also have to eliminate an outlier game such as the Chelsea match last season because we were clearly throwing in the white flag against a quality opponent who under any other circumstances we would have thrown out a better team.

Also, the point that the clubs we are playing in the Premier League may not be so great due to their record I understand, yet they are still clubs that had to have the quality to get into the Premier League, or stay afloat the season before. Again, the impact of playing higher quality clubs impacts team selection from our manager, and therefore also impacts other matches surrounding our FA cup ties, which you fail to mention.

Lastly, it is not just about the quality of the clubs but..hello...that we are being drawn AWAY against such teams, which increases the difficulty level.

[phips]

what do you guys think about the 4th substitute rule thats been initiated for the quarter finals (provided match goes into ET)?

its already been used in the German cup and it proved quite useful for Dortmund (and their opponent). i kinda like the rule. teams are usually gassed after the 90 minutes and probably will have used all 3 subs trying to win the match in normal time. players tend to cramp up in ET and then its 11v10 or something lame.

[dazby]

I like it. You shouldn't have to factor 120 mins into your subs.

[Piccsnumberoneblue]

what do you guys think about the 4th substitute rule thats been initiated for the quarter finals (provided match goes into ET)?

its already been used in the German cup and it proved quite useful for Dortmund (and their opponent). i kinda like the rule. teams are usually gassed after the 90 minutes and probably will have used all 3 subs trying to win the match in normal time. players tend to cramp up in ET and then its 11v10 or something lame.

I dislike it.
Yet another rule that benefits the clubs with the most depth in their squads. ie the wealthiest ones.

[phips]

not necessarily. sometimes its just getting some fresh legs out there or dealing with an injury.

but i do see your point. however, at this point, the chances are higher for "better" teams to reach the quarter finals and thus they would be the ones utilizing this.

[BlueinBosnia]

Is it? It is based upon where each club was position wise when the draws were made.

Your second point is an entirely different argument than the one being made, and is problematic in that you are not calculating the probability of any club being drawn against the top 9 clubs in the Premier League, and seeking to find another reason to claim that we have not had it so bad with draws. If you wish to back your claim I believe without making such calculations you would have to go do the same thing with all of the other top 9 clubs.

The point is we have consistently, with an unusually high level of unlikeliness according to the evidence, been drawn against generally higher quality clubs, which means ZERO League 1, 2 and non league teams over the last 9 draws. That does not mean there is a conspiracy, but it certainly is understandable, as the article suggests, for our fans to feel aggrieved.

Interestingly enough I suspect this likely correlates to why we also have not seen too many EDS and young fringe squad players get many games compared to other clubs of similar stature. To check this you might also have to eliminate an outlier game such as the Chelsea match last season because we were clearly throwing in the white flag against a quality opponent who under any other circumstances we would have thrown out a better team.

Also, the point that the clubs we are playing in the Premier League may not be so great due to their record I understand, yet they are still clubs that had to have the quality to get into the Premier League, or stay afloat the season before. Again, the impact of playing higher quality clubs impacts team selection from our manager, and therefore also impacts other matches surrounding our FA cup ties, which you fail to mention.

Lastly, it is not just about the quality of the clubs but..hello...that we are being drawn AWAY against such teams, which increases the difficulty level.

From the way I calculated it, it's assuming the top 26 stays constant. As I've shown above, the odds of being drawn against a Prem team in all 4 rounds in this FA cup were around 1 in 25. Being drawn against a Top 26 club in all 4 rounds would have been slightly larger, maybe 1 in 16. Obviously, being drawn away as well considerably shortens those odds.

Yes, my second point wasn't directly relevant to this, but I thought it relevant to put it out there.

In terms of not being drawn against League One, League Two and non-League clubs, I don't think there's any reason to be aggrieved. There is a less than 1 in 3 chance (31.7%) of us being drawn against such a team in the Third Round, with the odds decreasing every round thereafter (2015-16 4th Round = 25.8%, 5th Round = 6.7%; 2016-17 4th Round = 25.8%, 5th Round = 26.7%, 6th Round = 28.6%). For the League Cup, this year there was a 9.7% chance of us being drawn against a League One or Two club (obviously no chance of a non-League club) in the Third Round, and a 0% chance thereafter, as all teams had been eliminated.

I agree with everything you say about the reduced chances for giving opportunities to youth/fringe players.

On the subject of being drawn away, I agree that it's unlucky. The chances of flipping a coin and it landing tail side up 9 times in a row is 1 in 512. However, that's not what's happened here. At a guesstimate City have played around 500 non-two-legged cup games throughout our history (not including Manchester Senior Cup, Full Members' Cup, etc). The chances of us having a run of 9 away games at some point in our 500 matches is around 38.5%. That 'some point' just happens to be now.

In fact, assuming we've played 500 home-or-away matches, it's more likely for us to have been drawn away 8 or more times in a row twice in our history than never.