AFC Bournemouth. vs. Manchester City F.C.
Premier League
Saturday 25 August, 12:30
Dean Court, Bournemouth
We are only two games into the season, still Saturday’s early clash between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester City feels like a must-win game for both teams, or in the Cherries’ case, perhaps rather like one they cannot afford to lose.
After a disappointing draw against Everton on Monday night City are hoping to bounce back quickly in order not to lose too much ground to their Greater Manchester neighbors, who have started the season impressively with six points and a staggering 8-0 goal difference from the two first fixtures
At the other end of the table, we find the Dorset club, who have had a downright catastrophic start to the season. The Cherries are one of five teams still without a point to their name. Bournemouth fans and players alike will desperately want to drop that cruddy company for their mid-table mates of last season.
The Opponent
The two defeats aside, an even bigger headache for Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe, is the team’s impotence up front. Bournemouth still haven’t scored a single goal this season (not counting the League Cup win against Birmingham on Tuesday) and have – despite dominating possession in the two opening fixtures – struggled to create any clear-cut chances. In the opening game of the season, a 1-0 defeat away to West Brom, Bournemouth enjoyed an incredible 71% of the possession, but only managed two weak efforts on goal. Last weekend the Cherries lost 0-2 against Watford and were never really close to scoring with only two shots on target despite 56% possession.
Bournemouth’s problems in the final third may come as a surprise to many. Last season Eddie Howe had his team playing an attractive and effective football, much to the benefit of Joshua King, Benik Afobe and Callum Wilson. The strike force was good for 28 out of Bournemouth’s 55 goals last campaign (King 16, Afobe and Wilson 6 each), and with goal-machine Jermaine Defoe joining on a free transfer from Sunderland this summer, one could think that goals aplenty would be a guarantee.
That it is not points to an underlying issue: Bournemouth is in dire need of creativity in midfield. Much-maligned Jack Wilshire is back at Arsenal after a season long loan spell in Dorset, but still no midfield reinforcement has been brought in to pick up his mantle. Eddie Howe needs to find a solution to this problem very soon, or his team will continue to struggle.
At the other end of the pitch Bournemouth are looking very strong on paper. In goal, Asmir Begovic is certainly a step up from Boruc, and the permanent signing of Ake should be a real boost for the Cherries. Last weekend the defense struggled with a physical Hornets side, but City’s technical, pacey attack is a very different kettle of fish that I think they will better suited to handle.
City
The draw against Everton in the home debut was obviously a disappointing result. However, the fight-back with ten men against twelve in the second half was encouraging to see. Hopefully City can bring that spirit to the South Coast and show Bournemouth from the get-go who the boss is. I mean, why wait until you are one-nil down with a man sent off?
A lot of City fans, me included, found the 3-5-2 approach on Monday night overly cautious for a home game. The formation stymies our attack and unless we are playing a top team, the added stability (which is lost anyhow when Sané is deployed as left wingback) is not enough to compensate. Our best play against Everton also came when Danilo was able to link up with Sterling and Bernardo Silva on the right side, creating flashbacks of Zabaleta at his peak, overlapping Silva/Nasri during the Mancini era. At the moment the 3-5-2 also impact our pressing game negatively. An insecure back three playing too deep leaves space between the lines for the opponent to exploit, despite the forward players doing their job.
As always, it is difficult to second-guess Pep´s formation and tactics ahead of the game. However, for Saturday’s match his choice looks to be limited by our lack of fullbacks. Walker’s suspension after his ridiculous (but somewhat daft) sending off leaves Danilo as the only real fullback available for selection, unless Mendy is deemed fit, which unfortunately does not seem likely at the moment. The question is thus whether Sané gets another go as wingback despite his abject performance on Monday, or whether Fernandinho will once again be used as an emergency fullback in a more traditional back four. Personally, I hope for the latter. Of course with Pep being Pep, we could also see Sterling used as a right wingback …
Upfront I would not mind seeing Jesus and Agüero get more time to work on their partnership as long as it is not to the detriment of Sterling. Raheem has been our standout player during pre-season and put in another MotM performance and scored the equaliser against Everton, despite only playing one half.
Looking Back
The away fixture to Bournemouth in February last season ended in a 0-2 wind for City after a goal by Sterling and an own goal by Tyrone Mings. However, the score should have been bigger. City dominated the game completely and Sané hit the woodwork twice. The 4-0 victory at the Etihad in September was also a walk in the park for Manchester City. The fact is that Bournemouth has been a dream opponent for City over the years. Out of ten league games against AFC, City have won eight and only drawn two, with the latest tie as far back as 1999.
Predicted Starting Eleven
I am going with my heart here and will plump for 4-3-3. I think Sané might get punished for jogging back when Everton scored on Monday and will be benched for a game or two, which opens up the door for Bernardo Silva’s first Premier League start.
Ederson
Danilo
Otamendi
Kompany
Fernandinho
D. Silva
Yaya
de Bruyne
B. Silva
Agüero
Sterling
However, my head says that Pep will persist with 3-5-2. Sané will probably get one last chance and Sterling will likely start ahead of Jesus.
Prediction
Despite Bournemouth traditionally being a happy hunting ground for City and despite the Cherries poor start to the season, there are a few worrying signs for City ahead of this weekend’s game. On Saturday, the visitors are likely to see most of the possession, which means that Bournemouth’s lack of midfield creativity will not be as evident. Instead, the team can rely on their strong defense and pacey attack to hurt City on the counter. Indeed, Eddie Howe’s standard 4-4-2 formation feels ideally suited to Guardiola’s 3-5-2 experiment. City should as always still be strong enough to grab all three points, but with the forward line still struggling to convert chances, I predict a frustrating 90 minutes for us City fans.
Predicted score: AFC Bournemouth 2 – 2 Manchester City.
The mancityfans.net football forum
The BEST FORUM in all the land and all the world
