Expected Goals

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Re: Expected Goals

Postby mr_nool » Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:49 am

iwasthere2012 wrote:
mr_nool wrote:
Foreverinbluedreams wrote:"A lot of people, increasingly known as “real football people”, don’t need a stat to tell them what they can see with their own eyes. Others, the analytics crowd or “football nerds”, think it provides context. Especially if you didn’t actually watch the game."

Do I have to pick a side, can't I judge from what I've seen but acknowledge that stats can be useful too?

It does provide some context but that last line is just bollox, if you didn't watch the game then you can't analyse it with any degree of competence regardless of what stats you use.


Pretty Boy Lee can.

Perhaps he can.

I’d go one further and say being at the game and watching the broader scale of things, enables you to form a much more accurate assessment of what is actually happening than seeing it on a tv screen which shows a much narrower view of the game.
I believe this, even despite the replays and different angles and slow motions etc.

I’m with FIBD in so far as a combination of statistical analysis and what a coach actually sees in training and in a match, with the benefit of video footage, is no doubt of high sports science value.

For the ordinary fan though, I sometimes despair of all the armchair analysis, quoting all sorts of stats as proof.

If you have any kind of football brain at all and you watch enough of the team to form more than a short term opinion, then I think there is enough evidence in front of your eyes week in week out. Stats help but I rarely use them as a sole prop for my opinions.
You can’t beat your own intuition or gut feel.


Sorry, 10 year old inside joke. PBL once gave player ratings without having seen the game.
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Re: Expected Goals

Postby LookMumImOnMCF.net » Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:22 pm

I find stats a bit more useful on highlights programs. Sometimes with the editing you can get one impression of a game but the stats can tell another.

Reading stats about a game you've just watched seems pretty fruitless unless you're building some kind of database.
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Re: Expected Goals

Postby Foreverinbluedreams » Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:41 pm

LookMumImOnMCF.net wrote:I find stats a bit more useful on highlights programs. Sometimes with the editing you can get one impression of a game but the stats can tell another.

Reading stats about a game you've just watched seems pretty fruitless unless you're building some kind of database.


I often peruse them to see do they tally up with my perception of what I've watched.
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