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Been a lot of discussion on Footy forums about our recent slump in form. The major factor is injuries, or so many fans believe. Sure, it is a big part of the problem.

Personally, I think our slump is a little bit more complex than just injuries alone.

This will be controversial, but I think “Pep Ball” has become far too stale, and way too predictable.
Teams have finally found the right “Kryptonite” to defeat it.

They all sit deep with pacey players just waiting to pounce.

Quick counter attacking Football. I watched Liverpool expose Villa time after time to quick counter attacks. Counter attacking teams are doing well this season in the Premier League.

Waiting patiently for the right moments in a game. They let us fuck about with the Ball,pass,pass,pass,pass,to the back, to the side, rinse + repeat Pass,pass,pass. inevitably Rico Lewis(Usually 5 + times per game),or another player will lose the Ball with a shit pass, and they break at speed on us.

Our side is full of geriatrics only a couple of years from competing in walking football. Players cannot get back quick enough, easily being caught over exposed at the back, usually only 2 defenders are there, Boom 1 shot = 1 goal for the opposition,ten 2 shot = 2 goals,. We have conceded carbon copy,the same goals against us, literally time after time, game after game.

We simply no longer have the players to play Pep system. They are all way too old, and injury prone to get back quick enough. It is ridiculous that Pep cannot see the fucking obvious and come up with a Plan B. Shit transfer windows. And signing players who struggle keeping possession and recycling the Ball.Poor players in a supposed elite Team. This should never have happened, yet it has.

Pep has needed a Plan B to steady the Ship for a while,yet he seemingly does not have one. He simply keeps making the same mistake. Setting up the Team to play his way regardless. Why we get 45 minutes out of these players a game before they are all blowing out of their Arse.
If you have 11 technically gifted players,young,pacey,then Pep system is easy on the Eye.

If you have a Team full of players wrong side of 30,technically un-gifted,and not elite players,it is shit to watch. It is Franken Football. Pointlessly passing with no end product.Phases of pointless possession football before ending the phase by losing the Ball, or just lobbing it in to the Box hoping for the best from 4 man marked Haaland. It is boring tepid shit.Usually every cross is to a defender from the Wingers. Savinho actually looks up to see who is in the Box before 99% of the time crossing straight to a fucking defender.

Pep Ball is done for this team as it stands. We no longer have the players for it anymore. What we need to do right now is play to the team strengths until we either fix the problem with proper recruitment. By moving on all the 30 + players and the not fit for purpose second string players Plus Pep deciding he is “ Going or staying”. Another thing not helping this long-drawn-out saga. Either sign or move on now. No room for sentiment in Football. Sure we are all grateful for his achievements. Does not mean he takes a sabbatical this Season, and we end up finishing outside of European places because he earned it and we suffer 2 shit seasons.

zabbadabbado wrote:Been a lot of discussion on Footy forums about our recent slump in form. The major factor is injuries, or so many fans believe. Sure, it is a big part of the problem.

Personally, I think our slump is a little bit more complex than just injuries alone.

This will be controversial, but I think “Pep Ball” has become far too stale, and way too predictable.
Teams have finally found the right “Kryptonite” to defeat it.

They all sit deep with pacey players just waiting to pounce.

Quick counter attacking Football. I watched Liverpool expose Villa time after time to quick counter attacks. Counter attacking teams are doing well this season in the Premier League.

Waiting patiently for the right moments in a game. They let us fuck about with the Ball,pass,pass,pass,pass,to the back, to the side, rinse + repeat Pass,pass,pass. inevitably Rico Lewis(Usually 5 + times per game),or another player will lose the Ball with a shit pass, and they break at speed on us.

Our side is full of geriatrics only a couple of years from competing in walking football. Players cannot get back quick enough, easily being caught over exposed at the back, usually only 2 defenders are there, Boom 1 shot = 1 goal for the opposition,ten 2 shot = 2 goals,. We have conceded carbon copy,the same goals against us, literally time after time, game after game.

We simply no longer have the players to play Pep system. They are all way too old, and injury prone to get back quick enough. It is ridiculous that Pep cannot see the fucking obvious and come up with a Plan B. Shit transfer windows. And signing players who struggle keeping possession and recycling the Ball.Poor players in a supposed elite Team. This should never have happened, yet it has.

Pep has needed a Plan B to steady the Ship for a while,yet he seemingly does not have one. He simply keeps making the same mistake. Setting up the Team to play his way regardless. Why we get 45 minutes out of these players a game before they are all blowing out of their Arse.
If you have 11 technically gifted players,young,pacey,then Pep system is easy on the Eye.

If you have a Team full of players wrong side of 30,technically un-gifted,and not elite players,it is shit to watch. It is Franken Football. Pointlessly passing with no end product.Phases of pointless possession football before ending the phase by losing the Ball, or just lobbing it in to the Box hoping for the best from 4 man marked Haaland. It is boring tepid shit.Usually every cross is to a defender from the Wingers. Savinho actually looks up to see who is in the Box before 99% of the time crossing straight to a fucking defender.

Pep Ball is done for this team as it stands. We no longer have the players for it anymore. What we need to do right now is play to the team strengths until we either fix the problem with proper recruitment. By moving on all the 30 + players and the not fit for purpose second string players Plus Pep deciding he is “ Going or staying”. Another thing not helping this long-drawn-out saga. Either sign or move on now. No room for sentiment in Football. Sure we are all grateful for his achievements. Does not mean he takes a sabbatical this Season, and we end up finishing outside of European places because he earned it and we suffer 2 shit seasons.

Very good points and I agree.
One thing I cannot understand is why Grealish (aside from his current antics) is not the automatic replacement for Rodders? He made his name as a No 10, not quite as defensive, but a name that we were prepared to pay £100 million for. I think he would be brilliant in the role. He was absolutely brilliant the season before last and I just cannot fathom why he’s a winger. It seems Pep needs to be continually attempting to prove and reiterate his genius when sometimes the simple and patently obvious things are the best. He’s got pace, stamina, keeps the ball, draws fouls, has vision and if he hit the ball first time in some of the situations he been in over the years he’d have scored three times as many goals.

Good post I am thinking the same to be fair . Been a City fan all of my life . The good times are over the hierarchy of premier league will do every thing they can to put us back were we belong. And they will have achieved their aim in getting their beloved red cartel back were they belong . Looking forward to watching Wrexham v my Beloved City that’s what they want fuck em we will all still be there no matter what .

We are lacking a plan B.

If you go into the data on xGOT, this season is simply a continuation of a decline we saw last year which fundamentally brings into question how we play. Because we either have to fix this issue or change how we play.

I've always felt under Guardiola that while we didn't particularly concede many, the goals we did concede have always been way too soft, with the quality of chance the opposition seemed to get always being gilt edged leading to the odd team handing our arses to us. Essentially, we need 10 chances to score 1, the opposition seemed able to score 1 in 3 chances, because of how badly the defence shit the bed. It's rarely been bad goalkeeping from Ederson, more often than not the chances the opposition gets are literaly on a plate.

Our defence has always been pretty awful in that regard, so the priority seems to have always been about maintaining possession and reducing the number of times the opposition get those chances, and we would always have enough firepower to score more than them! But that approach unravels when the xGOT this season so far is 50% worse than last year, and 100% worse than our best defensive year in 2018, so this isn't about Rodri, it's a year on year decline.

What I find to be incredibly interesting stats:
* We have conceded 31% of all goals in the first 10 minutes
* We haven't yet scored a single goal between 50-80 minutes,
* But 31% of all goals scored have come after 80 minutes.

What does this mean?

For me the timing of when we've conceded and scores, tells me the intensity isn't there - we're not upto the pace of the game at the start, and although we seem to get caught cold at the start for the first half and thus maybe regain some of that intensity to peg it back fairly quickly, we also then lack intensity in the majority of the 2nd half too but aren't getting caught quite so cold defensively. But it seems we're trying to play ourselves into games in both halves and perhaps only do better in the first half because we shit the bed and concede and need a wake up call, but for most of the 2nd half in games we just pass the thing around trying to send the opposition to sleep - and it's fucking wank to watch also.

We've been lucky all season not to have a team do what Brighton did and pick our pockets due to this lack of intensity through the 2nd half. Is it terminal....I don't think so.

While we have Rodri out, Kev has been out for 10 games while Foden, Silva and Gundo have been in shocking form - to have your entire spine of the midfield either injured or bang out of form is really unusual, and it's so bad at the moment we have to believe form will return for those guys and this period will pass.

What does worry me is the role of Rico Lewis. While outwardly he looks a tidy player, his defensive statistics vs both fullbacks and midfielders are absolutely appalling - given our game is based on turnover, he's at the 14th percentile for both midfielders and full backs for interceptions, and 22nd percentile for tackles. Wheras Alexander Arnold, criticised for his defensive play AND not moving into CM in the same way, is in the 73rd percentile for interceptions and 59th percentile for tackles.

I'm far from convinced that Lewis is the right player for City at the moment, certainly not to have the level of responsibility he carries, and I can't help feeling that while it may not be obvious, a lot of the issues we're having centre on our reliance on him at the moment. It's not his fault by the way - he's exposed by the way Guardiola sets up.

PeterParker wrote:We are lacking a plan B.

Were lacking a plan A at the moment.

Losing Rodri is huge and I always thought that would be the case. We have been spoilt. He warned us about overplaying him!!!

zabbadabbado wrote:Been a lot of discussion on Footy forums about our recent slump in form. The major factor is injuries, or so many fans believe. Sure, it is a big part of the problem.

Personally, I think our slump is a little bit more complex than just injuries alone.

This will be controversial, but I think “Pep Ball” has become far too stale, and way too predictable.
Teams have finally found the right “Kryptonite” to defeat it.

They all sit deep with pacey players just waiting to pounce.

Quick counter attacking Football. I watched Liverpool expose Villa time after time to quick counter attacks. Counter attacking teams are doing well this season in the Premier League.

Waiting patiently for the right moments in a game. They let us fuck about with the Ball,pass,pass,pass,pass,to the back, to the side, rinse + repeat Pass,pass,pass. inevitably Rico Lewis(Usually 5 + times per game),or another player will lose the Ball with a shit pass, and they break at speed on us.

Our side is full of geriatrics only a couple of years from competing in walking football. Players cannot get back quick enough, easily being caught over exposed at the back, usually only 2 defenders are there, Boom 1 shot = 1 goal for the opposition,ten 2 shot = 2 goals,. We have conceded carbon copy,the same goals against us, literally time after time, game after game.

We simply no longer have the players to play Pep system. They are all way too old, and injury prone to get back quick enough. It is ridiculous that Pep cannot see the fucking obvious and come up with a Plan B. Shit transfer windows. And signing players who struggle keeping possession and recycling the Ball.Poor players in a supposed elite Team. This should never have happened, yet it has.

Pep has needed a Plan B to steady the Ship for a while,yet he seemingly does not have one. He simply keeps making the same mistake. Setting up the Team to play his way regardless. Why we get 45 minutes out of these players a game before they are all blowing out of their Arse.
If you have 11 technically gifted players,young,pacey,then Pep system is easy on the Eye.

If you have a Team full of players wrong side of 30,technically un-gifted,and not elite players,it is shit to watch. It is Franken Football. Pointlessly passing with no end product.Phases of pointless possession football before ending the phase by losing the Ball, or just lobbing it in to the Box hoping for the best from 4 man marked Haaland. It is boring tepid shit.Usually every cross is to a defender from the Wingers. Savinho actually looks up to see who is in the Box before 99% of the time crossing straight to a fucking defender.

Pep Ball is done for this team as it stands. We no longer have the players for it anymore. What we need to do right now is play to the team strengths until we either fix the problem with proper recruitment. By moving on all the 30 + players and the not fit for purpose second string players Plus Pep deciding he is “ Going or staying”. Another thing not helping this long-drawn-out saga. Either sign or move on now. No room for sentiment in Football. Sure we are all grateful for his achievements. Does not mean he takes a sabbatical this Season, and we end up finishing outside of European places because he earned it and we suffer 2 shit seasons.

Agree with most of this. The drop off has happened over last 2 seasons, injuries and an older squad have accelerated our demise. Add in some players that just aren't performing this year and Pep's future rumours have added to the issues. I still think that any half decent manager could get a better tune out of our squad by changing playing style

You keep saying about this drop off the last 2 seasons and it's simply not true.
Treble season we won the league with 89 points - scored 94, conceded 33.
Last season we won the league with 91 points - scored 96, conceded 34. It was also remarkable that we kept that consistency after the treble and being on for another one until April. There's a reason why 4 in a row hadn't been done in history until last season.. It was also done with Kev out half the season and Erling for 2 months.
The drop off is purely this season. We're struggling big time without Rodri. The 3 games we lost last season were 3 of the 4 that he missed.
There's something strange happening for sure with people like Grealish - there were rumours about Cancelo a couple of years ago and he was farmed out in the Jan. Hopefully there'll be some decent incomings in Jan to compensate.

stupot wrote:You keep saying about this drop off the last 2 seasons and it's simply not true.
Treble season we won the league with 89 points - scored 94, conceded 33.
Last season we won the league with 91 points - scored 96, conceded 34. It was also remarkable that we kept that consistency after the treble and being on for another one until April. There's a reason why 4 in a row hadn't been done in history until last season.. It was also done with Kev out half the season and Erling for 2 months.
The drop off is purely this season. We're struggling big time without Rodri. The 3 games we lost last season were 3 of the 4 that he missed.
There's something strange happening for sure with people like Grealish - there were rumours about Cancelo a couple of years ago and he was farmed out in the Jan. Hopefully there'll be some decent incomings in Jan to compensate.

Pretty sensible post.

I think we're also doing better points wise this season than two of the 4 in a row titles?

Personally, I think we're having our injury spell and bad form spell that all teams get at least once in a season.

However, we're having both at the same time.

Rodri is a huge loss but he played fuck all this season before this dip.

We need about 5 players back out of the 9 and we need to play our way out of this bad form, like we always do.

A nice boost to say pep is staying would be very welcome (I know there's one or two on here would like to see him go on the back of this latest run).

Hopefully that happens over the international break but I'm certainly not panicking now.

There's simply too much credit in the bank over the last almost 10 years for me to naturally lean towards defeat

Get Grealish fighting fit and get him in Midfield, he ain't no winger despite his great season wide. Things will improve, it's his position, it's why we paid £100million for him. It's that fucking simple. It won't solve all the problems, but without Rodders, he's the obvious go to man. Kovacic is good, he has the industry but he just doesn't have the invention required.....Grealish does, in my humble opinion. We lost 2 league games, one cup game with a lot of kids and CL game which wasn't normal against a side with their tails up and a departing coach who they idolise. Stand up, dust yourselves down get your acts together and start playing with some intensity we won four on the trot which has never been done before and it's obvious why. I want five !!! Pep get that extension signed.

I know a scout at the Rags that I managed to catch up with the other week. He actually knows his stuff and was a decent footballer. Knows a ton about the youth teams and he’s normally spot on.
He’s friends with Grealish’s mate through scouting and said that Grealish is desperate to go back to Villa. I think Jack’s won what he wanted to and will likely be off home. Saw a video where a Villa fan asked him to sign his top and he was nearly crying asking the Villa fan if he still likes him. Obviously misses home

Not sure Villa can afford him. Not just what fee City would want but his wages.

Honestly think we need to change styles as well. I agree that the current players haven't got what it takes. If it were possible to play any City side from between 17-23 and play the side from this season it would be chalk and cheese. The 2024 XI would be trounced.

Football itself has adapted. Clubs have evolved their style of play. Virtually every side now attempts to play out from the back. More and more try to retain possession. I wouldn't necessarily say we've been found out as I don't think that's the case. But teams are finding it easier to play against us and get results.

I also don't think we change under Pep. I think the next manager will have to make a choice of whether to continue the style we have been used to, or to adapt and change. And of course the appointment in the first instance will give us an idea of what will the direction be. Look at the dippers. Different style to Klopp and currently they are smashing it.

In all honesty in an increasing number of games I've been bored. The constant sideways passing now seems to be done for the sake of it rather than what it used to be. We rarely attack with pace. I for one, along with everyone i guess, has relished the last decade or so, being more successful than I ever thought possible. But I reckon it's time for a change in how we play and set up

blues2win wrote:Not sure Villa can afford him. Not just what fee City would want but his wages.

Swap him for Watkins

nottsblue wrote:

blues2win wrote:Not sure Villa can afford him. Not just what fee City would want but his wages.

Swap him for Watkins

I’d swap him to take Morgan Rogers back!

first halves v lisbon and brighton were pretty decent
should have been comfortably ahead in both games

Nigels Tackle wrote:first halves v lisbon and brighton were pretty decent
should have been comfortably ahead in both games

This

Nigels Tackle wrote:first halves v lisbon and brighton were pretty decent
should have been comfortably ahead in both games

And yet we were hammered in Lisbon and lost in Brighton

Seems we can’t play with the intensity required for 90minutes? Which is kind of the point of the thread

Im_Spartacus wrote:If you go into the data on xGOT, this season is simply a continuation of a decline we saw last year which fundamentally brings into question how we play. Because we either have to fix this issue or change how we play.

I've always felt under Guardiola that while we didn't particularly concede many, the goals we did concede have always been way too soft, with the quality of chance the opposition seemed to get always being gilt edged leading to the odd team handing our arses to us. Essentially, we need 10 chances to score 1, the opposition seemed able to score 1 in 3 chances, because of how badly the defence shit the bed. It's rarely been bad goalkeeping from Ederson, more often than not the chances the opposition gets are literaly on a plate.

Our defence has always been pretty awful in that regard, so the priority seems to have always been about maintaining possession and reducing the number of times the opposition get those chances, and we would always have enough firepower to score more than them! But that approach unravels when the xGOT this season so far is 50% worse than last year, and 100% worse than our best defensive year in 2018, so this isn't about Rodri, it's a year on year decline.

What I find to be incredibly interesting stats:
* We have conceded 31% of all goals in the first 10 minutes
* We haven't yet scored a single goal between 50-80 minutes,
* But 31% of all goals scored have come after 80 minutes.

What does this mean?

For me the timing of when we've conceded and scores, tells me the intensity isn't there - we're not upto the pace of the game at the start, and although we seem to get caught cold at the start for the first half and thus maybe regain some of that intensity to peg it back fairly quickly, we also then lack intensity in the majority of the 2nd half too but aren't getting caught quite so cold defensively. But it seems we're trying to play ourselves into games in both halves and perhaps only do better in the first half because we shit the bed and concede and need a wake up call, but for most of the 2nd half in games we just pass the thing around trying to send the opposition to sleep - and it's fucking wank to watch also.

We've been lucky all season not to have a team do what Brighton did and pick our pockets due to this lack of intensity through the 2nd half. Is it terminal....I don't think so.

While we have Rodri out, Kev has been out for 10 games while Foden, Silva and Gundo have been in shocking form - to have your entire spine of the midfield either injured or bang out of form is really unusual, and it's so bad at the moment we have to believe form will return for those guys and this period will pass.

What does worry me is the role of Rico Lewis. While outwardly he looks a tidy player, his defensive statistics vs both fullbacks and midfielders are absolutely appalling - given our game is based on turnover, he's at the 14th percentile for both midfielders and full backs for interceptions, and 22nd percentile for tackles. Wheras Alexander Arnold, criticised for his defensive play AND not moving into CM in the same way, is in the 73rd percentile for interceptions and 59th percentile for tackles.

I'm far from convinced that Lewis is the right player for City at the moment, certainly not to have the level of responsibility he carries, and I can't help feeling that while it may not be obvious, a lot of the issues we're having centre on our reliance on him at the moment. It's not his fault by the way - he's exposed by the way Guardiola sets up.

Astonishing stats about when the goals are scored. And I think you’re correct with the lack of intensity theiry