Slim wrote:Games in which one extra goal scored/conceded would have made a difference:12
Games in which we won by 2 or more goals 14
This one doesn't focus so much on attack or defence but a better distribution of those 14 games' goals into other games means we could have still scored 71 and been clear leaders in the league.(As we know from the previous stat, defensively or offensively, was 18 or 19 points respectively)
Im_Spartacus wrote:Slim wrote:Games in which one extra goal scored/conceded would have made a difference:12
Games in which we won by 2 or more goals 14
This one doesn't focus so much on attack or defence but a better distribution of those 14 games' goals into other games means we could have still scored 71 and been clear leaders in the league.(As we know from the previous stat, defensively or offensively, was 18 or 19 points respectively)
Or we could just have a better goalkeeper!
I remember last season we had the lowest shots on target against us by quite a long way, but it seemed that Hart didn't actually save many of them.
That doesn't necessitate a change in playing style - in fact, it strengthens the case for attack being the best form of defence if we conceded less shots than anyone else.
Ted Hughes wrote:One stat which probably can be proven is that goals from defenders, etc & set pieces=points.
The two often being the same thing. I haven't looked it up in detail, but I bet if you checked how many points we potentially won due to scoring from set pieces last season compared to this season, there would be a huge difference. Then compare it to Chelsea & the rags.
I think it may also have happened that we dropped off in the season after Mancini's title win too. Which is fucking weird if true tbh.
Slim wrote:I don't think statistics that simple can explain the whole situation. I am sure someone somewhere has a complex algorithm that they believe does. But in the end like Ted and others have said, get more points than everyone else, win title.
Why hasn't squad depth been brought up yet? There is a reason Soton fell away, a reason in recent times why WHU, Hull and Newcastle have all fell away in the second half of the season and that I believe to be a hugely overriding factor. How does one quantify squad depth? Value on players sitting on the bench?
Joe Hart is coming up on the rails as he bids for a record fourth Golden Glove award.
The battle for the Premier League award for most clean sheets is the closest since the award began in 2004/05 with five keepers all in with a realistic chance of taking the prize.
With three games to go for all the keepers in contention, the contest is still wide open – but three shut-outs for Hart would probably be enough to secure a fourth success in five years and reaffirm his credentials as the Premier League’s top custodian.
Liverpool’s Simon Mignolet and Southampton’s Fraser Forster currently lead the way with 13 clean sheets but Forster, who was once easily ahead of the pack, will not play again for several months after picking up a serious knee injury in March. West Brom’s Ben Foster was on 11 before he, too was ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.
Mignolet should play in Liverpool’s final three games which are away to Chelsea and Stoke plus a home game against Crystal Palace.
Tied on 12 with Joe are Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois and Swansea’s Lukasz Fabianski. Courtois could face Liverpool, West Brom and Sunderland – but Jose Mourinho may give Petr Cech game-time with the title already wrapped up.
Fabianski has the toughest-looking run-in with Arsenal and Palace away plus City at The Liberty Stadium. David de Gea could still tie top spot with 13 but he’d have to keep three successive shut-outs it achieve that number in the games that remain and hope those ahead all conceded goals in all their games.
Hart, if he plays all three of City’s final games, would face QPR, Swansea and Southampton – the latter would be his 300th appearance for the Blues so let’s hope there’s cause for double celebration that day, particularly if, at the other end of the pitch, Sergio Aguero secures the Golden Boot!
Wonderwall wrote:A good article on the OS just put up about Hart in with a chance of the Golden glove for most clean sheets!!Joe Hart is coming up on the rails as he bids for a record fourth Golden Glove award.
The battle for the Premier League award for most clean sheets is the closest since the award began in 2004/05 with five keepers all in with a realistic chance of taking the prize.
With three games to go for all the keepers in contention, the contest is still wide open – but three shut-outs for Hart would probably be enough to secure a fourth success in five years and reaffirm his credentials as the Premier League’s top custodian.
Liverpool’s Simon Mignolet and Southampton’s Fraser Forster currently lead the way with 13 clean sheets but Forster, who was once easily ahead of the pack, will not play again for several months after picking up a serious knee injury in March. West Brom’s Ben Foster was on 11 before he, too was ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.
Mignolet should play in Liverpool’s final three games which are away to Chelsea and Stoke plus a home game against Crystal Palace.
Tied on 12 with Joe are Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois and Swansea’s Lukasz Fabianski. Courtois could face Liverpool, West Brom and Sunderland – but Jose Mourinho may give Petr Cech game-time with the title already wrapped up.
Fabianski has the toughest-looking run-in with Arsenal and Palace away plus City at The Liberty Stadium. David de Gea could still tie top spot with 13 but he’d have to keep three successive shut-outs it achieve that number in the games that remain and hope those ahead all conceded goals in all their games.
Hart, if he plays all three of City’s final games, would face QPR, Swansea and Southampton – the latter would be his 300th appearance for the Blues so let’s hope there’s cause for double celebration that day, particularly if, at the other end of the pitch, Sergio Aguero secures the Golden Boot!
Foreverinbluedreams wrote:Im_Spartacus wrote:Slim wrote:Games in which one extra goal scored/conceded would have made a difference:12
Games in which we won by 2 or more goals 14
This one doesn't focus so much on attack or defence but a better distribution of those 14 games' goals into other games means we could have still scored 71 and been clear leaders in the league.(As we know from the previous stat, defensively or offensively, was 18 or 19 points respectively)
Or we could just have a better goalkeeper!
I remember last season we had the lowest shots on target against us by quite a long way, but it seemed that Hart didn't actually save many of them.
That doesn't necessitate a change in playing style - in fact, it strengthens the case for attack being the best form of defence if we conceded less shots than anyone else.
The type of shots we conceded has to be factored in though. If we are leaving ourselves exposed then the striker has an easier job when it comes to shooting, time to pick his spot, time to weigh up the angles etc. whereas the type of shots Chelsea would concede for example would be more hurried shots, shots hit under pressure from defenders etc.
Peter Doherty (AGAIG) wrote:Wonderwall wrote:A good article on the OS just put up about Hart in with a chance of the Golden glove for most clean sheets!!Joe Hart is coming up on the rails as he bids for a record fourth Golden Glove award.
The battle for the Premier League award for most clean sheets is the closest since the award began in 2004/05 with five keepers all in with a realistic chance of taking the prize.
With three games to go for all the keepers in contention, the contest is still wide open – but three shut-outs for Hart would probably be enough to secure a fourth success in five years and reaffirm his credentials as the Premier League’s top custodian.
Liverpool’s Simon Mignolet and Southampton’s Fraser Forster currently lead the way with 13 clean sheets but Forster, who was once easily ahead of the pack, will not play again for several months after picking up a serious knee injury in March. West Brom’s Ben Foster was on 11 before he, too was ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.
Mignolet should play in Liverpool’s final three games which are away to Chelsea and Stoke plus a home game against Crystal Palace.
Tied on 12 with Joe are Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois and Swansea’s Lukasz Fabianski. Courtois could face Liverpool, West Brom and Sunderland – but Jose Mourinho may give Petr Cech game-time with the title already wrapped up.
Fabianski has the toughest-looking run-in with Arsenal and Palace away plus City at The Liberty Stadium. David de Gea could still tie top spot with 13 but he’d have to keep three successive shut-outs it achieve that number in the games that remain and hope those ahead all conceded goals in all their games.
Hart, if he plays all three of City’s final games, would face QPR, Swansea and Southampton – the latter would be his 300th appearance for the Blues so let’s hope there’s cause for double celebration that day, particularly if, at the other end of the pitch, Sergio Aguero secures the Golden Boot!
And I'll raise you:
iwasthere2012 wrote:Peter Doherty (AGAIG) wrote:Wonderwall wrote:A good article on the OS just put up about Hart in with a chance of the Golden glove for most clean sheets!!Joe Hart is coming up on the rails as he bids for a record fourth Golden Glove award.
The battle for the Premier League award for most clean sheets is the closest since the award began in 2004/05 with five keepers all in with a realistic chance of taking the prize.
With three games to go for all the keepers in contention, the contest is still wide open – but three shut-outs for Hart would probably be enough to secure a fourth success in five years and reaffirm his credentials as the Premier League’s top custodian.
Liverpool’s Simon Mignolet and Southampton’s Fraser Forster currently lead the way with 13 clean sheets but Forster, who was once easily ahead of the pack, will not play again for several months after picking up a serious knee injury in March. West Brom’s Ben Foster was on 11 before he, too was ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.
Mignolet should play in Liverpool’s final three games which are away to Chelsea and Stoke plus a home game against Crystal Palace.
Tied on 12 with Joe are Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois and Swansea’s Lukasz Fabianski. Courtois could face Liverpool, West Brom and Sunderland – but Jose Mourinho may give Petr Cech game-time with the title already wrapped up.
Fabianski has the toughest-looking run-in with Arsenal and Palace away plus City at The Liberty Stadium. David de Gea could still tie top spot with 13 but he’d have to keep three successive shut-outs it achieve that number in the games that remain and hope those ahead all conceded goals in all their games.
Hart, if he plays all three of City’s final games, would face QPR, Swansea and Southampton – the latter would be his 300th appearance for the Blues so let’s hope there’s cause for double celebration that day, particularly if, at the other end of the pitch, Sergio Aguero secures the Golden Boot!
And I'll raise you:
Has he won 'King of the Mountains' as well.
Peter Doherty (AGAIG) wrote:Wonderwall wrote:A good article on the OS just put up about Hart in with a chance of the Golden glove for most clean sheets!!Joe Hart is coming up on the rails as he bids for a record fourth Golden Glove award.
The battle for the Premier League award for most clean sheets is the closest since the award began in 2004/05 with five keepers all in with a realistic chance of taking the prize.
With three games to go for all the keepers in contention, the contest is still wide open – but three shut-outs for Hart would probably be enough to secure a fourth success in five years and reaffirm his credentials as the Premier League’s top custodian.
Liverpool’s Simon Mignolet and Southampton’s Fraser Forster currently lead the way with 13 clean sheets but Forster, who was once easily ahead of the pack, will not play again for several months after picking up a serious knee injury in March. West Brom’s Ben Foster was on 11 before he, too was ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.
Mignolet should play in Liverpool’s final three games which are away to Chelsea and Stoke plus a home game against Crystal Palace.
Tied on 12 with Joe are Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois and Swansea’s Lukasz Fabianski. Courtois could face Liverpool, West Brom and Sunderland – but Jose Mourinho may give Petr Cech game-time with the title already wrapped up.
Fabianski has the toughest-looking run-in with Arsenal and Palace away plus City at The Liberty Stadium. David de Gea could still tie top spot with 13 but he’d have to keep three successive shut-outs it achieve that number in the games that remain and hope those ahead all conceded goals in all their games.
Hart, if he plays all three of City’s final games, would face QPR, Swansea and Southampton – the latter would be his 300th appearance for the Blues so let’s hope there’s cause for double celebration that day, particularly if, at the other end of the pitch, Sergio Aguero secures the Golden Boot!
And I'll raise you:
Nigels Tackle wrote:Peter Doherty (AGAIG) wrote:Wonderwall wrote:A good article on the OS just put up about Hart in with a chance of the Golden glove for most clean sheets!!Joe Hart is coming up on the rails as he bids for a record fourth Golden Glove award.
The battle for the Premier League award for most clean sheets is the closest since the award began in 2004/05 with five keepers all in with a realistic chance of taking the prize.
With three games to go for all the keepers in contention, the contest is still wide open – but three shut-outs for Hart would probably be enough to secure a fourth success in five years and reaffirm his credentials as the Premier League’s top custodian.
Liverpool’s Simon Mignolet and Southampton’s Fraser Forster currently lead the way with 13 clean sheets but Forster, who was once easily ahead of the pack, will not play again for several months after picking up a serious knee injury in March. West Brom’s Ben Foster was on 11 before he, too was ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.
Mignolet should play in Liverpool’s final three games which are away to Chelsea and Stoke plus a home game against Crystal Palace.
Tied on 12 with Joe are Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois and Swansea’s Lukasz Fabianski. Courtois could face Liverpool, West Brom and Sunderland – but Jose Mourinho may give Petr Cech game-time with the title already wrapped up.
Fabianski has the toughest-looking run-in with Arsenal and Palace away plus City at The Liberty Stadium. David de Gea could still tie top spot with 13 but he’d have to keep three successive shut-outs it achieve that number in the games that remain and hope those ahead all conceded goals in all their games.
Hart, if he plays all three of City’s final games, would face QPR, Swansea and Southampton – the latter would be his 300th appearance for the Blues so let’s hope there’s cause for double celebration that day, particularly if, at the other end of the pitch, Sergio Aguero secures the Golden Boot!
And I'll raise you:
he's wearing his 'herb' outfit
Wonderwall wrote:Good job its not an exact science isnt it
4-4-2
4-5-1
4-3-3
4-6-0
5-3-2
5-4-1
5-5-0
3-4-3
3-5-2
3-6-1
4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-2-2
4-3-2-1
then there are:
strategies for dealing with individual opposition players,
strategies for different opposition teams,
strategies for operating in certain areas of the pitch,
strategies for what we do when in possession and what we do when we dont have the ball,
strategies for your own game plan for certain players who are on your team,
strategies for playing at home
strategies for playing away
then there are the gamefactors thrown in during match play:
Injuries
sendings off
substitutions
poor officiating
utility players
Its a pretty simple game innit
Mikhail Chigorin wrote:Wonderwall wrote:Good job its not an exact science isnt it
4-4-2
4-5-1
4-3-3
4-6-0
5-3-2
5-4-1
5-5-0
3-4-3
3-5-2
3-6-1
4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-2-2
4-3-2-1
then there are:
strategies for dealing with individual opposition players,
strategies for different opposition teams,
strategies for operating in certain areas of the pitch,
strategies for what we do when in possession and what we do when we dont have the ball,
strategies for your own game plan for certain players who are on your team,
strategies for playing at home
strategies for playing away
then there are the gamefactors thrown in during match play:
Injuries
sendings off
substitutions
poor officiating
utility players
Its a pretty simple game innit
You missed out 3-3-4 from the list of possibilities; which might be quite an interesting formation to try, or not ??!!??
(as well as the classic 4-2-4)
nottsblue wrote:iwasthere2012 wrote:Peter Doherty (AGAIG) wrote:Wonderwall wrote:A good article on the OS just put up about Hart in with a chance of the Golden glove for most clean sheets!!Joe Hart is coming up on the rails as he bids for a record fourth Golden Glove award.
The battle for the Premier League award for most clean sheets is the closest since the award began in 2004/05 with five keepers all in with a realistic chance of taking the prize.
With three games to go for all the keepers in contention, the contest is still wide open – but three shut-outs for Hart would probably be enough to secure a fourth success in five years and reaffirm his credentials as the Premier League’s top custodian.
Liverpool’s Simon Mignolet and Southampton’s Fraser Forster currently lead the way with 13 clean sheets but Forster, who was once easily ahead of the pack, will not play again for several months after picking up a serious knee injury in March. West Brom’s Ben Foster was on 11 before he, too was ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.
Mignolet should play in Liverpool’s final three games which are away to Chelsea and Stoke plus a home game against Crystal Palace.
Tied on 12 with Joe are Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois and Swansea’s Lukasz Fabianski. Courtois could face Liverpool, West Brom and Sunderland – but Jose Mourinho may give Petr Cech game-time with the title already wrapped up.
Fabianski has the toughest-looking run-in with Arsenal and Palace away plus City at The Liberty Stadium. David de Gea could still tie top spot with 13 but he’d have to keep three successive shut-outs it achieve that number in the games that remain and hope those ahead all conceded goals in all their games.
Hart, if he plays all three of City’s final games, would face QPR, Swansea and Southampton – the latter would be his 300th appearance for the Blues so let’s hope there’s cause for double celebration that day, particularly if, at the other end of the pitch, Sergio Aguero secures the Golden Boot!
And I'll raise you:
Has he won 'King of the Mountains' as well.
It's an audition for Brokeback Mountain 2 "he's a keeper"
Slim wrote:Ted Hughes wrote:Slim wrote:Mikhail Chigorin wrote:At the end of the day, I feel, albeit somewhat simplistically, that all questions of attack and defence, as ensconced in this thread, could be mirrored in City's performances this season.
If we ask the question as to why, statistically speaking, our title defence has been so (relatively) disappointing, I'd have to say that it's not because of the number of goals we've conceded, but because of the number of goals we haven't scored.
Irrespective of the reasons for this (loss of form of key players, injuries, not replacing Negredo etc), if we'd scored another twenty or more goals this season, the title run in would have had a markedly different complexion.
Apologies Sparty but I honestly believe that it's goals scored that win matches (and titles) and that defensive considerations are only of secondary importance after this.
Chelsea F:69
City F:71
City have only failed to score in 3 matches this season, whereas they have dropped points in 10 matches in which they've scored (6D 4L).
So if we'd scored more goals then ?
If we'd have scored one more goal in each of our matches, we'd have 19 more points.
If we'd conceded one goal less in each of our matches, we'd have 18 more points.
That's a pretty good outcome actually.
Piccsnumberoneblue wrote:
It already has been mentioned in a fashion. The wage bill has a 90+% correlation with league placing.
So pay a large number of top class players the going rate, you tend to win a lot of games .
Sir Alex Ferguson once claimed "attack wins you games, defence wins you titles" - but is that true?
So can teams with weaknesses at the back win the title? Yes they can.
Unsurprisingly, Premier League champions have typically been strong at both ends - but ultimately they've been better in attack.
Since 1995/96, the average champions have ranked 1.45 out of 20 teams for their goals scored, compared to an average rank of 2.41 for goals conceded.
In total, 14 out of 22 champions have had the strongest attack during the respective season - but only nine have had the best defence.
In fact, Sir Alex was the master for winning titles with an inferior defence - mitigated with a league-topping attack.
Manchester United only had the seventh best defence when they won the title in 1996/97, shipping 44 goals - Blackburn conceded fewer and finished in 13th place.
And Fergie continued in the same vein, having only the fourth best defence in 1998/99, the sixth best in 1999/00 and fifth best in 2012/13.
In each of those title-winning seasons, United scored more goals than any other team.
PL champions' defence & attack ranked for respective season
Season Champion Defence Attack
____________________rank rank
1995/96 Manchester United 3 1
1996/97 Manchester United 7 1
1997/98 Arsenal________ 2 3
1998/99 Manchester United 4 1
1999/00 Manchester United 6 1
2000/01 Manchester United 1 1
2001/02 Arsenal________ 2 2
2002/03 Manchester United 1 2
2003/04 Arsenal________ 1 1
2004/05 Chelsea_______ 1 2
2005/06 Chelsea_______ 1 1
2006/07 Manchester United 2 1
2007/08 Manchester United 1 1
2008/09 Manchester United 1 2
2009/10 Chelsea_______ 2 1
2010/11 Manchester United 3 1
2011/12 Manchester City 1 1
2012/13 Manchester United 5 1
2013/14 Manchester City 2 1
2014/15 Chelsea_______ 1 2
2015/16 Leicester City__ 3 3
2016/17 Chelsea_______ 3 2
There have only ever been five 'perfect champions' over the last 22 years - having scored more goals and conceded fewer than any other team.
Manchester City's class of 2011/12 were superior at both ends, as were Manchester United in 2007/08 and 2000/01, Chelsea during 2005/06 and Arsenal in 2003/04.
If the final table was based on the average rank of each club's attack and defence, six of the previous 22 champions wouldn't have won the league.
Manchester United would have finished fourth in 1996/97, behind would-be champions Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle.
But Arsenal would have had their 1997/98 title stripped, with United lifting the trophy instead - before the Gunners topped United during the 1999/00 campaign.
Again, United would have lost another title in Fergie's final season at the helm during 2012/13, finishing third behind champions Chelsea and Arsenal.
Most recently, Tottenham would have won the Premier League for the last two seasons - stripping Leicester's fairy-tale adventure and Antonio Conte's title-winning Premier League season at Stamford Bridge in the process.
The average goals per game in the Premier League has increased marginally year on year for three consecutive seasons.
However, that 2.8 goals per game average in recent top-flight football is dwarfed by the 4.7 goals per game recorded in 1889/90.
Aston Villa scored a remarkable 128 goals in 1930/31 - more than any other top-flight side in the history of English football.
Despite their record goal haul, Villa still only finished the season as runners-up, behind Arsenal - who had scored 127 goals.
http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11096/11003161/does-attack-or-defence-win-premier-league-titles
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