Gabriel Jesus’ arrival could define Mikel Arteta’s tenure at Arsenal
Gabriel Jesus, Arsenal, Manchester City
By Michael Cox Jun 26, 2022
Whereas Manchester City and Liverpool have signed centre-forwards unfamiliar with the Premier League, Arsenal’s impending new signing Gabriel Jesus is well accustomed to the English top flight.
Jesus has played for five and a half years in the Premier League with City. He’s played more Premier League games than Eric Cantona did. He’s got as many assists as Freddie Ljungberg and scored more goals than Tim Cahill.
We know his strengths and his weaknesses inside out. What we don’t truly know is his optimum position.
We were introduced to Jesus upon his arrival from Palmeiras in Brazil in 2017 as a pure striker, a speedy No 9 who ran in behind, and while not necessarily the most formidable aerial threat, possessing a decent leap, and also a knack for being in the right place at the right time.
In the formative days of expected goals — at least in media terms — Jesus was often highlighted as a player who would come good on the basis of his xG numbers (rather than his actual goals return).
But statistics since suggest he’s not the most clinical finisher, underperforming his xG number in four of his five complete Premier League seasons — and in the other, overperforming by just 0.2, essentially “par”. Jesus puts himself in the right positions to get on the end of chances, as you might hope of an attacker playing ahead of the most creative midfield in Europe. He has sometimes been wasteful, however.
It would be easy to suggest that this is why Jesus increasingly started to be considered a wide forward rather than a centre-forward by City manager Pep Guardiola, although that would slightly misunderstand the way goalscorers operate these days.
Gabriel Jesus never really had a defined role in over five years at Manchester City
Mohamed Salah and Son Heung-min have just shared the Premier League’s 2021-22 Golden Boot by operating from wide, generally facilitated by a centre-forward capable of dropping deeper to create. Jesus’ link-up play is good but he’s more of a wide runner than he is a forward moving into midfield areas.
And all of that makes his expected move to Arsenal, who have agreed personal terms with the forward, particularly intriguing.
Mikel Arteta has worked with Jesus before, spending over three years on the City staff before taking the Arsenal job in December 2019, and since becoming a manager, has broadly followed Guardiola’s template of wanting a centre-forward who boasts good link play above all else. He was never convinced by Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang because of that shortcoming in his game, initially electing to play him wide and later finding that Arsenal played better without him.
The debate between Alexandre Lacazette and Eddie Nketiah was, broadly speaking, link play versus finishing ability, with Arsenal’s other attacking options looking better with Lacazette until his lack of goal contribution became almost unavoidable.
Perhaps in an ideal world, Arsenal would have signed a world-class No 9, a reliable goalscorer to spearhead the attack, but signing a player like that comes with problems — sometimes a manager simply doesn’t want to use a No 9.
Cristiano Ronaldo did all that could have been expected last season in terms of scoring goals for Manchester United but his side went backwards. Romelu Lukaku’s first year back with Chelsea was a bizarre period, with the Belgium striker complaining about being played out of position and at one point, setting a record for the fewest touches in a Premier League game.
It’s even possible to make a case that Erling Haaland, who arrives at City from Borussia Dortmund with an astonishing goalscoring record, might not necessarily be what that team requires.
But Jesus is not an inflexible No 9 — at the start of 2021-22, we had all seemingly decided he was more of a winger.
“I spoke with Gabriel and he likes to play sometimes more in wider positions than the central one,” Guardiola said after using him down the right for a 5-0 win over Norwich City last August.
“Ferran (Torres) has a big sense for the goal, I would say a little bit higher than Gabriel when he plays in central positions… (Torres’) movements are more towards the goal. Gabriel comes more to drop a little bit, Ferran makes movements more to the goal. With our lack of goals lately, we need a guy who can make a movement there.”
In typically unpredictable fashion, Guardiola used a traditional winger as a forward and a traditional forward as a winger.
In 24 league and European starts last season, Jesus began the game playing through the middle 10 times and started down the right, where he has featured regularly for Brazil, in all the others.
It means that when Arteta approaches a game and decides he doesn’t want to play a conventional centre-forward, he can use Jesus elsewhere and not have a £45 million player sitting on the bench. Arsenal cannot afford to waste resources in that fashion. Gabriel Martinelli can do the same from the opposite side.
That leaves Nketiah as the more typical No 9, although in certain games — particularly against stronger sides — it wouldn’t be surprising to see Emile Smith Rowe or Martin Odegaard as the most advanced central attacking player, with two players breaking in behind from wide. Bukayo Saka can play almost anywhere.
Which means Arteta has by far the biggest range of attacking options since he took charge of the club. Perhaps, in terms of star quality, this Arsenal squad’s strongest attacking trio cannot compete with Lacazette, Aubemayeng and Mesut Ozil, but those three players all had obvious weaknesses that constrained Arteta tactically.
Increasingly, Arteta’s squad is packed full of “his” players, and there are fewer excuses now if Arsenal fail to play “his” style of football to a high standard.
Arteta will probably only get one opportunity to bring in a striker of Jesus’ cost and calibre. His success or failure may define Arteta’s tenure at Arsenal.
