by AFKAE » Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:35 pm
A bit long, good luck wading through it all!
Ederson a cause and symptom of Manchester City’s problems
The goalkeeper has made a number of glaring mistakes this season but the way Pep Guardiola’s side are playing has not helped him either, says Hamzah Khalique-Loonat
Hamzah Khalique-Loonat
Friday February 24 2023, 9.00am, The Times
Share
Save
The focus on Manchester City’s deficiencies this season has centred on a recent dearth of goals, despite the fact that they possess the world’s most ruthless finisher in Erling Haaland, and tactical tinkering across the midfield and defence. But Ederson, the goalkeeper, has endured a tough season which has been both a cause and symptom of City’s problems.
In Leipzig on Wednesday, the Brazilian misjudged the flight of a cross to allow Josko Gvardiol to climb above Rúben Dias and nod an equaliser into an unguarded net.
It was not the first time the City goalkeeper had made costly mistakes this campaign; since returning from the Qatar World Cup, Ederson has made a number of glaring errors. He was culpable for two goals against Tottenham Hotspur at the Etihad — a poor pass to Rodri led to Spurs’ opener, while a spilt shot into the six-yard box was followed in by Emerson Royal — and was bizarrely statuesque when Ollie Watkins struck past him a fortnight ago.
These instances compound a number of mistakes made before the World Cup too. Ederson would have offered more than a sheepish apologetic hand in the dressing-room after Leandro Trossard, then playing for Brighton & Hove Albion, struck an effort from outside the penalty area that beat him at his near post in October.
Similarly, he would not have looked forward to the post-match review of the Manchester derby, a game in which he deflected a shot struck at him into the path of Anthony Martial. And the first goal City conceded this season — a Kieran Trippier set-piece — was planted on the goalkeeper’s side.
When Ederson arrived at the Etihad, he was famed for his exceptional passing range. That quality has earned him an assist to Haaland this season and has been a key component of City’s build-up play in their defensive third.
But according to data from Opta, over the course of his career, Ederson is a statistically average shot-stopper. A metric called “expected goals on target” takes into account where a ball crosses the line and compares the likelihood of that shot being saved according to historical data. It is not an infallible statistic, but it is a useful entry point to gather information on a goalkeeper’s ability to make saves other goalkeepers would not.
According to the shots City have faced this season, the average goalkeeper would have conceded roughly 19 goals (18.8); however, Ederson has conceded 24. Per game that is an underperformance of 0.18 — in other words, roughly every 5½ matches this season Ederson has cost his side a goal.
Even if own goals and penalties are removed, like in the graphic below, Ederson still underperforms relative to where the shots ended in the goal.
However, over his 5½ seasons at City, Ederson’s performance in expected goals on target is almost perfectly average. Of the 488 shots he has faced, they have an expected goals on target value of 149.9. Ederson has (excluding own goals) conceded 150 goals.
However, for comparison, in the same period the Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson Becker has saved 23.9 more goals than the average goalkeeper would be expected to, or 0.12 goals per 90. In this season alone, Alisson has saved 9.3 goals more than average (0.45 per 90).
In itself this is not a particularly significant problem for City. Guardiola’s side typically control games to such an extent that they rarely concede chances and Ederson’s abilities with the ball at his feet outweigh his indifferent shot-stopping abilities. However, this season Ederson’s problems are part of a wider issue for City, who are conceding chances at a far higher rate than in recent years.
Expected goals — a measure of chance quality according to the position shots are taken — demonstrate this. Since Ederson joined the club, only in the 2019-20 season — when Liverpool won the league — have City given away a higher quality of chances per game than this season.
Interestingly, Ederson is not just being called upon to make saves, he is engaged far more often in possession. His defensive team-mates are far more willing to pass back to the goalkeeper than they have been in recent seasons.
With a higher volume of passes at the back comes more risk in the form of pressure from opponents and misplacing passes, as shown in Tottenham’s opening goal at the Etihad last month.
Manuel Akanji (110), John Stones (84) and Dias (83) have been the three most prolific passers to the goalkeeper, though Nathan Aké (80) and Rodri (53) have also been more than willing to pass the ball back towards Ederson too. This is part of City’s wider struggles in moving the ball upfield more generally and their midfield malaise — and explains in part why Guardiola has looked to move Bernardo Silva deeper to assist in progressing the ball forwards.
As City are playing deeper, and the defensive line is unable to move as high as it usually does, Ederson’s defensive actions — such as tackles, interceptions and clearances — have regressed closer to his own goal than in any of his previous seasons, in turn mitigating one of his greatest strengths: sweeping.
The deeper City play, the harder it is to compact the field and press, and therefore the easier they are to play through.
If City wish to stop conceding goals so often, somewhat counterintuitively they may need to play higher, allowing Ederson to sweep and pick out the occasional pass as he does best, rather than taking an active role in possession.
In playing and pressing higher, the team may be able to keep opponents away from goal and be preventative in their defending, rather than needing to call upon Ederson in a season in which he is struggling.
Share
Save
