Run for Top 4 - The Way I See It

[mr_nool]

I think Spur's results the last couple of games, and especially away to Stoke this weekend, show that they shouldn't be written off.

[Crossie]

2 points per game and its ours,

win draw win draw, win win ,easy peasey.

We will still leave it to the last game of the season though,

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

My thoughts are all on us and the rest are irrelevant. If we get to 70 points it's job done and especially if we do it and dont lose to Ville or Spurs on the way.

All the games we have worry me as if we don't play well it's possible especially away from home that we won't win a game.We have picked up recently in performances although only in half games on occasion but there are some signs that Mancini is seeking to attack a little more.

Biggest game of the season on Wednesday v Everton.

Yes, you are quite right. If we don't play well we might lose all the games. And if we play well we might win all the games. Neither which looks very likely.

And we played well whole game yesterday imo.

You've seemed like real sourpus recently.

[Ted Hughes]

Might sound controversial looking at the league table right now but I reckon it's between us and Villa.

Liverpool have two games more than us and Villa and one more than Tottingham and I can't believe that all three teams would slip. And anyone who has seen Liverpool this season know that they lack any sort of team spirit and mentality to consistently win games, so I simply can't see them making top 4.

Tottenham, this is where it get's interesting. They are two points ahead of us and five points ahead of Villa RIGHT NOW with both us and Villa having a game in hand. However, if you look at their fixture list, they have by far the hardest out of the three teams, them having to play EVERYONE in top 3 at this stage of the season and trip to ours which as far as away games go is as hard as any in league. They are also still in FA Cup with home replay against Fulham and most likely at least semi-final to still come. Knowing Harry, he will put more emphasis on FA Cup than league if he sees chance to win it again. Furthermore, they are without Defoe and while Crouch, Keane and Pavlychenko are all very decent strikers, none of them are prolific like Defoe has been this season. Most importantly, none of them stretch defences like Defoe does meaning the form of Lennon (When he gets back) is SURE to suffer. Also, Spurs defence is average at best and they have been dead lucky in lot of games this season I've seen. I can see them shifting fair few goals against top 3 and us.

That leaves us and Villa. We have upper hand right now being three points ahead of them. Then again they have by far easier remaining fixture list. BUT they are stil in FA Cup and I'm certain O'Neill will give that lot of emphasis. And they have recently started shifting goals. SO I think the REAL decider might very well be our home game against them in 1st of may.

I get where you're coming from but if we draw against Villa and lose against Spurs it's really gonna turn everything on its head. Also, Chelsea apart, Liverpool have six VERY winnable games. I wouldn't be astonished to see them end up on 69 points, which would mean us needing to win six of our last nine. It might be a good idea to get this thread made a sticky so people can comment on the racwe for 4th as it takes all of its twists and turns between now and the end of the season.

HELL NO! There's no way I'm going to make this sticky and take all the ridiculing when it turns out I'm wrong!

On a serious note, I honestly can't see Spurs winning at ours. I really can't. We struggle against "at your face and hoof" teams but have been absolutely excellent for most of the time under Mancini against "ball players". Tottenham are fucking soft team and the thought of Tevez and Jinky running circles around Gareth Bale makes my mouth water.

Villa will be much harder game for us in my opinion.

I think we'll have a better idea where we stand after the Everton game. If we get those three points then a lot of the stuff you're saying about Spurs becomes true but if we don't, then our run in becomes as difficult as theirs & they have a points & a goal difference advantage. The current collapse of Chelsea also worries me; that they'll have a stinker at Spurs & lose, also we've shown how it's possible to turn Arsenal over. Spurs will go for it & they have the best attack out of our competitors.

If we get that points advantage on Wed though, I think we'll get 4th. Hope the crowd realise how important this is & get behind the team because Everton are the kings of the 'at your face and hoof' teams that you mentioned we struggle against but if we get in front with the crowd behind us, we could tear them to pieces.

[Douglas Higginbottom]

My thoughts are all on us and the rest are irrelevant. If we get to 70 points it's job done and especially if we do it and dont lose to Ville or Spurs on the way.

All the games we have worry me as if we don't play well it's possible especially away from home that we won't win a game.We have picked up recently in performances although only in half games on occasion but there are some signs that Mancini is seeking to attack a little more.

Biggest game of the season on Wednesday v Everton.

Yes, you are quite right. If we don't play well we might lose all the games. And if we play well we might win all the games. Neither which looks very likely.

And we played well whole game yesterday imo.

You've seemed like real sourpus recently.

Just being a realist. I really don't like the IF we do this and they do that thinking as it's all so meaningless but I suppose standard fare for the nervous fan when it gets towards the end of a season. Just select the right team ,send them out with a positive attitude and play well and the rest will take care of itself.

[john@staustell]

I believe if we win our home games we're there. And I still think we'll win at Burnley.

But I agree with the fishy person - Villa are fading, they were piss poor against Wolves and even Dunne's injured now. Spuds have to play Arse, Scum, Chelski and us and are at severe risk of getting nil points from those 4.

If anyone sneaks up on the wire it will be the Dippers, who are playing a bit better all of a sudden. Amazing how some on here wanted them to win yesterday because they are more concerned with what SCUM do. That match could just have got us 4th place.

[Ted Hughes]

I believe if we win our home games we're there. And I still think we'll win at Burnley.

But I agree with the fishy person - Villa are fading, they were piss poor against Wolves and even Dunne's injured now. Spuds have to play Arse, Scum, Chelski and us and are at severe risk of getting nil points from those 4.

If anyone sneaks up on the wire it will be the Dippers, who are playing a bit better all of a sudden. Amazing how some on here wanted them to win yesterday because they are more concerned with what SCUM do. That match could just have got us 4th place.

In theory the dippers could & should win every game but they've made an arse of so many games this season we can hope they'll do it again.

[Piccsnumberoneblue]

I don't understand why people are saying Villa's run in is easy. Away matches with us and Chelsea plus they'll find nothing easy at Bolton especially, but even at Pompey or Hull. They are going to have to find at least six wins from nine and their home games are nowt easy, including a tough 'Derby" game.
I think Scouse are going to set the bench mark of around 66/67 points, but they can't afford one slip up despite having 'should win fixtures'

[Alioune DVToure]

Might sound controversial looking at the league table right now but I reckon it's between us and Villa.

Liverpool have two games more than us and Villa and one more than Tottingham and I can't believe that all three teams would slip. And anyone who has seen Liverpool this season know that they lack any sort of team spirit and mentality to consistently win games, so I simply can't see them making top 4.

Tottenham, this is where it get's interesting. They are two points ahead of us and five points ahead of Villa RIGHT NOW with both us and Villa having a game in hand. However, if you look at their fixture list, they have by far the hardest out of the three teams, them having to play EVERYONE in top 3 at this stage of the season and trip to ours which as far as away games go is as hard as any in league. They are also still in FA Cup with home replay against Fulham and most likely at least semi-final to still come. Knowing Harry, he will put more emphasis on FA Cup than league if he sees chance to win it again. Furthermore, they are without Defoe and while Crouch, Keane and Pavlychenko are all very decent strikers, none of them are prolific like Defoe has been this season. Most importantly, none of them stretch defences like Defoe does meaning the form of Lennon (When he gets back) is SURE to suffer. Also, Spurs defence is average at best and they have been dead lucky in lot of games this season I've seen. I can see them shifting fair few goals against top 3 and us.

That leaves us and Villa. We have upper hand right now being three points ahead of them. Then again they have by far easier remaining fixture list. BUT they are stil in FA Cup and I'm certain O'Neill will give that lot of emphasis. And they have recently started shifting goals. SO I think the REAL decider might very well be our home game against them in 1st of may.

I get where you're coming from but if we draw against Villa and lose against Spurs it's really gonna turn everything on its head. Also, Chelsea apart, Liverpool have six VERY winnable games. I wouldn't be astonished to see them end up on 69 points, which would mean us needing to win six of our last nine. It might be a good idea to get this thread made a sticky so people can comment on the racwe for 4th as it takes all of its twists and turns between now and the end of the season.

HELL NO! There's no way I'm going to make this sticky and take all the ridiculing when it turns out I'm wrong!

On a serious note, I honestly can't see Spurs winning at ours. I really can't. We struggle against "at your face and hoof" teams but have been absolutely excellent for most of the time under Mancini against "ball players". Tottenham are fucking soft team and the thought of Tevez and Jinky running circles around Gareth Bale makes my mouth water.

Villa will be much harder game for us in my opinion.

True but Spurs handed our arses to us once this season already. And our record against them over the last few years is patchy to say the least.

I still think you should make this a sticky. Edit the title so people don't necessarily associate the thread with you personally. Otherwise we're going to get about five identical threads a week between now and the end of the season. I think it's be much tidier and mcuh more interesting to keep it all in here. That way we can keep a record of how the chase for fourth evolves and how the landscape changed every week.

Call it:
"The Official 'Race for Fourth' Run-in Thread"

[Swales4ever]

I believe if we win our home games we're there. And I still think we'll win at Burnley.

But I agree with the fishy person - Villa are fading, they were piss poor against Wolves and even Dunne's injured now. Spuds have to play Arse, Scum, Chelski and us and are at severe risk of getting nil points from those 4.

If anyone sneaks up on the wire it will be the Dippers, who are playing a bit better all of a sudden. Amazing how some on here wanted them to win yesterday because they are more concerned with what SCUM do. That match could just have got us 4th place.

May I have a free (of charge) lesson on what a fishy person is and, eventually, who should intended to be, Mate?

[john@staustell]

I believe if we win our home games we're there. And I still think we'll win at Burnley.

But I agree with the fishy person - Villa are fading, they were piss poor against Wolves and even Dunne's injured now. Spuds have to play Arse, Scum, Chelski and us and are at severe risk of getting nil points from those 4.

If anyone sneaks up on the wire it will be the Dippers, who are playing a bit better all of a sudden. Amazing how some on here wanted them to win yesterday because they are more concerned with what SCUM do. That match could just have got us 4th place.

May I have a free (of charge) lesson on what a fishy person is and, eventually, who should intended to be, Mate?

Fish111 mate and his pearls of wisdom on page one of this thread!

[Swales4ever]

I believe if we win our home games we're there. And I still think we'll win at Burnley.

But I agree with the fishy person - Villa are fading, they were piss poor against Wolves and even Dunne's injured now. Spuds have to play Arse, Scum, Chelski and us and are at severe risk of getting nil points from those 4.

If anyone sneaks up on the wire it will be the Dippers, who are playing a bit better all of a sudden. Amazing how some on here wanted them to win yesterday because they are more concerned with what SCUM do. That match could just have got us 4th place.

May I have a free (of charge) lesson on what a fishy person is and, eventually, who should intended to be, Mate?

Fish111 mate and his pearls of wisdom on page one of this thread!

Thanks for the lesson, Mate. As You perhaps would had noticed, I am pretty faulty with language and need to be helped sometimes... :-)

[Piccsnumberoneblue]

One other factor is that by the time Villa and Spuds come, both could desperately need to win. Villa are quite poor at opening teams up (Did you see them v Wolves) and it could very well play into our hands, picking them off with quick counter attacks. For that to be the case we'll need to get the right results from our next four slightly easier (on paper) games.

[DoomMerchant]

Basically,win all our home games sneak a point here and there away and Boom were top 4 baby.

that's exactly right. If we can defend the Fortress from the Infidels we'll be golden. Got to start with Everton of course.

I think it will take 70 pts for Fourth.

[One cap Whitey]

When I did the BBC predictor thing last night there were only two points between the 4 teams challenging for 4th. There are bound to be plenty of unexpected results but i do think it will be that close, perhaps we'll all still be in with a chance on the last day.

As long as it remains in our hands I fancy City to do it. With Spuds and Villa to play at home, we've got to beat them, and I think we will.

[Alioune DVToure]

Basically,win all our home games sneak a point here and there away and Boom were top 4 baby.

that's exactly right. If we can defend the Fortress from the Infidels we'll be golden. Got to start with Everton of course.

I think it will take 70 pts for Fourth.

Me too.

[brite blu sky]

my take as have already put in the other top4 thread is that the whole thing comes down to consistency and mentality now.

We are in very good shape in that respect... very good.. we are solidifying and slowly getting better.

Pool are all over the place still and cant get performances out of Gerard or Torres, they have 1 card only.. experience.
and it is probably that alone that is keeping them close by. I cant really see them gaining any consistency over their last 7 games now, but due to their experience it would be foolish to completely right them off. I does look like they are a busted flush though.

Spuds are better placed, they were consistent last year under Arry so they know what it takes ( i should remind people it was the first time they have been consistent in the run-in since i dont know when ), so dont discount that. However as someone pointed out they have all the top 3 to play and us.. frankly my dear it just seems too much that they would get enough points out of those games to stay in it.

Villa are just a classic also ran team, they look already like they are getting brittle.. pressure is building and they cant hold their minds together enough to stay on track, they are like we used to be.. they will start to be seriously inconsistent and the FA cup will just add to the lack of focus, i can see them beating Chelsea in the cup and dropping away from the race for 4th.

Conclusion: IF. and it is a big IF, we beat Everton i rekon we will walk 4th and end on at least 74 pts possibly 76 pts.
if we lose to Everton we will wobble a bit and struggle like the rest of them (above).. in that case i still think we will be better than the rest but make hard work of landing 69 - 71pts

[Chinners]

my take as have already put in the other top4 thread is that the whole thing comes down to consistency and mentality now.

We are in very good shape in that respect... very good.. we are solidifying and slowly getting better.

Pool are all over the place still and cant get performances out of Gerard or Torres, they have 1 card only.. experience.
and it is probably that alone that is keeping them close by. I cant really see them gaining any consistency over their last 7 games now, but due to their experience it would be foolish to completely right them off. I does look like they are a busted flush though.

Spuds are better placed, they were consistent last year under Arry so they know what it takes ( i should remind people it was the first time they have been consistent in the run-in since i dont know when ), so dont discount that. However as someone pointed out they have all the top 3 to play and us.. frankly my dear it just seems too much that they would get enough points out of those games to stay in it.

Villa are just a classic also ran team, they look already like they are getting brittle.. pressure is building and they cant hold their minds together enough to stay on track, they are like we used to be.. they will start to be seriously inconsistent and the FA cup will just add to the lack of focus, i can see them beating Chelsea in the cup and dropping away from the race for 4th.

Conclusion: IF. and it is a big IF, we beat Everton i rekon we will walk 4th and end on at least 74 pts possibly 76 pts.
if we lose to Everton we will wobble a bit and struggle like the rest of them (above).. in that case i still think we will be better than the rest but make hard work of landing 69 - 71pts

Ha ha whereas we have experience, consistency and are not a classic also ran team ... interesting

[brite blu sky]

not sure what you are driving at there chinners..

some of our players have experience of what it takes for a strong run-in, but some dont, and the team as a whole doesn't.

we are reasonable consistent, as in rarely lose. We seem also to be getting better.. just about.

and we are a classic also ran team yes... worse we were typical City. But that is what everyone is working to change isn't it?

As we stand right now, we have already done better than we usually do.. we are in the mix for a CL spot

[Chinners]

I agree with that. Your previous post read (to me anyway) like we were not affected by those traits. Based on the last 10 years, we are the least experienced of the lot in my opinion ... it's going to be nailbiting whatever happens, can we do it? certainly. Will we do it? I'm not so sure