BBC Predictor Experiment

[sandman]

We will finish 4th...

I just did a little experiment based on current position, using the theory that all wins are 2-1, and clubs current next to each other in the table 1-1 draw. This completely took my opinion and hopes out of the equation and showed that on form over the season so far and with the matches to come we are in line to finish 4th.

1.Manchester United 90
2.Chelsea 86
3.Arsenal 85
4.Manchester City 72
5.Tottenham Hotspur 71
6.Liverpool 69
7.Aston Villa 69
8.Everton 64
9.Birmingham City 56
10.Fulham 51
11.Stoke City 49
12.Sunderland 46
13.Blackburn Rovers 44
14.Wigan Athletic 40
15.Bolton Wanderers 35
16.Wolverhampton Wanderers 32
17.West Ham United 28
18.Burnley 25
19.Hull City 25
20.Portsmouth 13

I realise this makes no difference so before cockheads start criticising it, I simply did this to prove to myself that my belief that we'll finish 4th isnt biased by hope but is mathematically more likely, this shows we certainly have the advantage.

[john@staustell]

Personally I think we will be fourth with 75 points. As far as the BBC goes, I would say our form is (and hopefully will be to the end) better now than earlier in the season.

[brite blu sky]

while this is interesting to take out your bias, doesn't it just reflect the league positions at the moment projected to the end of the season?

how did you distribute the 2-1 wins ?

[sandman]

while this is interesting to take out your bias, doesn't it just reflect the league positions at the moment projected to the end of the season?

how did you distribute the 2-1 wins ?

I did work it out on current league position so as to reflect teams overall performances over the last 30 games.

I know its not accurate, but it shows that we are on course?

[colonel_muck]

In mine, we finish sixth. Liverpool get fourth.

[Crossie]

If we get 75 points ill eat my own head.

68 by my predictions, 4th, a point ahead of spurs

[sandman]

If we get 75 points ill eat my own head.

68 by my predictions, 4th, a point ahead of spurs

So you think we'll beat Utd or Arsenal, I really hope you're right.

[Crossie]

erm, had us down to lose them both,

68 points

not 75

[sandman]

erm, had us down to lose them both,

68 points

not 75

Sorry, yes, right you are, I didnt read it properly!!