It's not got the length of a Bobby Brows effort but here tis.
It was all going so well. City were dominating Sunderland on the pitch and Newcastle were leading against the rags. If I had a twitter account I’d of tweeted something like “looks like the 4 point lead is going to be 1 point by the end of the day.” Thankfully, I don’t have a twitter account as I’d have to be deleting a comment that would make me look really really stupid. Regardless, Boxing Day didn’t go according to plan and the gap between 1st and 2nd has blown out to 7 points. Not insurmountable by any means but let’s face it, if City had that sort of lead there would be some blues putting pressure on their bookies to pay out early.
The problem so far is simple. City just aren’t scoring enough goals put together a consistent run of results. The number of chances created is down and conversion rates are down. Our strikers are not creating with the same regularity as last season.
Why? Why? Why? This is the question blues across the world have been asking themselves. Some have come up with theories as to how and why and this author is no exception. Unfortunately I don’t have any stats to back up my theories but I hope to put some general concepts out there that most should agree with. Here is the general guide to beating Manchester City.
1. Stop the perfect goal from being scored. You just know that City are going to pass the ball around trying to create the perfect opportunity. However, only the strikers are going to take that opportunity. This means that any fullbacks or midfielders in the play just need to be marked because they aren’t taking the shot. It’s only the greedy strikers that will be so daring. But they aren’t in form at the moment so keep tight on them. The passing is a bit off so the final ball probably won’t get to them anyway.
2. Park the bus inside the box. There is no need to cover players outside the box because they aren’t going to shoot. Just make sure they don’t get it to the greedy strikers.
3. Don’t throw men forward in attack, just be handy on the counter. Keep them back, and keep them ready. City won’t try to beat you with pace. City won’t try the quick counter, because you already have players back. Just be patient and your chance will come. City will have thrown so many players forward that you’ll get a 3v4 or even a 2v3. That should be enough to create a chance.
4. Shoot to Joe Hart’s bottom left. It’s his weak spot. Check the goals he’s conceded this season.
And 5. remember, no matter how open David Silva is, he won’t shoot. Just cover his passes.
And there you have it. City’s problems this season in a nutshell. No pace, no counterattacking threat, no strikers attacking the line, no players taking on a player and beating a player and making something of it (instead they try to beat them again,) no width, no plan B and no hope. We are out of Europe, out of the League Cup and languishing in 2nd place, now 4 points off third. We are dooooomed. Typical City. <tongue is in cheek>
If ever there was a match that was a barometer of how City will fare this season it is a match against Norwich. Last season the Norwich away game was fixture in which Carlos Tevez led the title revival with a magnificent hat trick. City scored 11 goals in 2 games against the canaries. If ever there was an easy game last season, it was against these guys. If we can’t score against Norwich, then relegation beckons. <tongue is still in cheek>
I am of course being highly disrespectful to Norwich. Considering they have lost their established manager and were a tight knit unit with a team of nobodies who’ve seized their opportunity and done brilliantly to be where they are; then yeah, they’ve done very well. Chris Hughton has picked up where Paul Lambert has left off and at the half way point of the season has them on 25 points, the same level as Swansea and Liverpool.
It’s at home where Norwich has taken care of business. 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. A very respectable return and the 8th best in the league. Norwich work hard, are well organised, and are the embodiment of the team being greater than the sum of its parts. Grant Holt, who against Chelsea made his comeback from injury, is the nearest they have to a star player.
City Outs: Balotelli, Kolarov, Maicon, Richards, Rodwell.
Norwich Outs: Surman, Whittaker, Ruddy.
Stat Attack.
Norwich have conceded 28 goals, made 106 saves, 45 blocks, 179 clearances with 5 clean sheets. 19% of their shots on target are headers and they average 10.6 shots per match. 43% of their shots on target are from outside the box.
City have conceded 16 goals, made 54 saves, 43 blocks and 83 clearances with 7 clean sheets. 11% of our shots on target are headers and we average 16.63 shots per match. 34% of our shots on target are from outside the box.
The game.
As before mentioned, Norwich were City’s bunnies last season. It will serve as an interesting guide as to whether Norwich can make more of an impact on the scoreboard this season. Conversely, City could draw tremendous confidence from their history against the Canaries and use the game to banish the demons of the Sunderland result by racking up a big scoreline. Norwich were outclassed last season and have done little within the playing ranks to suggest that they can compete. However, if Chris Hughton reads the above guide to beating City he’ll have a fighting chance.
Odds
Norwich 6.00 City 1.50 Draw 4.10
1.50 is very generous odds for a City victory and could be well worth putting the house on. For a value bet you can get 11 on the score at half time being 0-0. When you consider that City are normally slow out of the boxes it could be worth a punt.
Prediction.
Carlos Tevez has a great record against Norwich and will score again. Yaya Toure is also due a goal. Throw in a Pab Zab consolation and you’ve got a 0-3 scoreline to settle the nerves and steady the ship.
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