Time to update the tables ...
Highlights- We have 11 games to go so 33 points to play for and a difference of 12. Count the derby a must win, so they need to drop 9 points from remaining 10 games basically, i.e. three losses ... draws won't cut it as even 4 draws won't be enough, will have to be 5 ... or of course a combination thereof.
- The difference of 12 is pretty clear in the comparison with same fixtures from last year. We are about 6 points worse off and they are about 7 better off and that's the total 12 point swing their way ... so it's really as good as they have been, its equally how bad we have been in comparison on same fixtures. If you compare by gameweek, they are only 4 points better off than after 27 games last season. It's us who are 10 points behind than at this stage last season, so really all our own doing and not that they are playing extraordinarily better.
- The win against Chelsea was a relief as had we dropped any points today, it'd have been four consecutive games we dropped points in ... something we didn't do last year. We did however had a bad run of just 2 points off 3 games last season as well. That was Stoke draw, Sunderland draw, then Arsenal loss ... but then we went on to win the next (final) 6 games and lifted the trophy.
- Just like last season if we can now go on a 100% win run from here till the end, we should end pretty close to the top. The only thing not giving me much confidence, although I am pretty confident we can win the next 11 games on the trot ... is them dropping points like they did in the run-in last season. They dropped 8 points in a span of 4 games last year ... and the fact they did that last year is the main reason they won't do it again. Their reaction to us losing to Saints when they changed their line up just before Real Madrid game to play their best XI to ensure pouncing on the opportunity given to them (to increase the gap to 12) says it all ...
Anyway, nothing's over till it's over ... based on how they have gone this season, I do expect them to drop points in either of the next two games. They have only won 4 or 5 games together this season before dropping points in a game so with them on a 4 game winning run I do expect they'll falter soon. And if it is a loss to Norwich at home or West Ham away (their next two fixtures), before the derby ... and then us winning the derby might just create some sort of pressure, we just can't say ...
Oh, and a final point ... what we have done by winning today is kept Chelsea very close to Spurs and Arsenal in the table. I am hoping Spurs win tomorrow night and leapfrog Chelsea to the third place as I really want Arsenal and Chelsea both to be scrapping in the battle for the fourth spot comes the last 4-5 games of the season. Reason being after the derby, the Scum play Arsenal away as their 35th fixture and then Chelsea at home as their 36th game ... both of them should be well in a tight fight to take the fourth Champions League spot by then to really challenge the rags and make it a do-or-die for them. The two big games where they CAN potentially drop points AFTER we have played them are these and it'll purely be in the hands of other teams to take any points off them (after the derby). Not to forget: we'd be playing Spurs away during that time, so best case for us over the next 4-5 games is Spurs getting ahead of the other two and not be fighting for their lives comes the time we play them, while rags play pretty desperate Chelsea and Arsenal.
Here are the updated tables:
Title Race at 27 - By Gameweek.JPG
Title Race at 27 - By Same Fixtures.JPG
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