The Drop

[Alioune DVToure]

It's getting ridiculously tense at the bottom now. Who's going to be the last one to go? How many points will see you safe?

It's beginning to look like it could take as many as 41 points and not too bad a goal difference to stay in the league (say >-20). That'd be the highest for ages (the second highest total of the 20-team PL era?).

Here's the EIGHT (!) teams still in the mathematical mixer along with their respective fixtures:

TABLE

11. Stoke P:36 PTS:41 GD:-10 (Spurs [h], Soton [a])

12. Fulham P:36 PTS: 40 GD:-11 (Liverpool [h], Swansea [a])

13. Villa P:36 PTS:40 GD:-21(Chelsea [h], Wigan [a])

14. Soton P:36 PTS:39 GD:-11(Sunderland [a], Stoke [h])

15. Sunderland P.36 PTS:38 GD:-12 (Southampton [h], Spurs [a])

16. Norwich P:36 PTS:38 GD:-22 (West Brom [h], City [a])

17. Newcastle P:36 PTS:38 GD:-23 (QPR [a], Arsenal [h])

-----------------------------------

18. Wigan P:36 PTS:35 GD:-23
(Arsenal [a], Villa [h])



It's almost impossible to work out who's in the deepest shit. Probably Wigan, as they'll have to win both of those home games at least. However, if they do, it'll leave Villa needing to beat a Chelsea team desperate for points themselves. For Villa, a point should see them safe so long as, (a) that point comes at Wigan, and (b) they don't lose heavily against Chelsea. Sunderland should get four points from those home games and be okay. However, wins against those opponents (Stoke, Saints) might make their own last-day clash at St Mary's the one which decides who drops. Newcastle and Norwich might done enough if they beat QPR and WBA respectively. THE MIND BOGGLES.

PREDICTION

Wigan will draw their last three matches and go down on 38 points. No great escape this year.




***UPDATE*** 06/05

Sunderland 1-1 Stoke (League table and remaining fixtures updated accordingly)


***UPDATE*** 07/05

Wigan 2-3 Swansea (As above)

[MilnersJaw]

i want both sunderland and wigan to stay up, the rest i dont give a shit about.

sunderland because pablo is a nutter and wigan because pies and martinez

[mr_nool]

That's a good summary, mate!
I think the teams that already are on 40 points are safe. I have a soft spot for the pie eaters and would like to see them escape again, but I can't really see.it happen. If they do pull it off, though, my bet is on Norwich going down. I doubt they will get any points against WBA, and I think we might need the three points in the last game to secure the second place, which should have our guys motivated.

[Redna]

Villa staying up,Hull coming up wit their jock managers meaning 6 easy for the filth. Not good.
My hope is for Villa to go down. They are to big to take it. Were not gonna take it.
CTID!!

[LookMumImOnMCF.net]

I can't see Newcastle getting another point. If Wigan do get three draws I think they'll be OK.

[Wonderwall]

i want both sunderland and wigan to stay up, the rest i dont give a shit about.

sunderland because pablo is a nutter and wigan because pies and martinez

Let Sunderland drop, for some reason we always perform shit against them

[craigmcfc]

At least if the Geordies drop they've got a talented manager on a long term contract so they'll be ok...........

[BobbyDazzler]

As mathematically unlikely as it is, I'd love Stoke to go. Hate the manager. Hate their football, hate the chairman, and dislike the majority of stoke fans I've come across. I think Newcastle or Sunderland will go, with wigan to pinch survival on the last day. They have a good manager, a capable squad with one or two good players and play entertaining football. Fingers crossed.

[MilnersJaw]

i want both sunderland and wigan to stay up, the rest i dont give a shit about.

sunderland because pablo is a nutter and wigan because pies and martinez

Let Sunderland drop, for some reason we always perform shit against them

and swansea too. that is mancinis gaff

[Slim]

SOFT SPOT FOR THE PIE EATERS????

ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME???

Go write your own names down in the "You're not a City fan if..." thread.

[Wooders]

Wigan and their champion of "city cant spend money" chairman can fuck off to the championship, and hopefully lower leagues, forever
Martinez can then manage a proper club

[Blue Since 76]

Without any personal preference, I think either Norwich or Newcastle will go. Both went on holiday about a month ago and I'm not sure they can drag themselves out of it. The likes of Villa and Wigan are in the right frame of mind already.

Either way, I can see the last day being a cracker

[Piccsnumberoneblue]

Done a calculation with my Geordie brother in law and we reckon Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan will all finish on 41 with Newcastle on 39.
Up to Geordirland is my favourite trip of the year these days.

[Dunnylad]

I reckon it'll be Wigan and it'll be sorted before the last game of the season to really end this as one of the shittest Premier League seasons ever - it balances out how good last season was and will never be topped

[Bridge'srightfoot]

We always do well against Newcastle. Won our last 6 in the league since they came up against them and 9 of our last 10, drawing the other.

Hope they stay up.

[Twobob]

Hoping Wigan dont pull it out of the bag this time round, wanker fans - overflow Rags! Dave wheelan is a grade A full of himself tosser. Free up Robby Martinez to get a job were his best players wont get sold every summer and he can play decent football without interference from Grandad 'i broke my leg at Wembley' Wheelan!

[walmai]

Am I the first to think it will be Norwich and that, in effect, you'll send them down?

You could easily score 3,4 or even more against them and, if you do, they could drop on g/diff.

[Dameerto]

Any sodding club that voted 'yes' to FFP can rot in the lower leagues - let's get some new clubs up here.

[Blue Since 76]

Any sodding club that voted 'yes' to FFP can rot in the lower leagues - let's get some new clubs up here.

Agree. Did any of the contenders vote against it? If so, I'm supporting them.

Although Reading abstained and QPR voted against, so we're not exactly a growing group of dissenters.

[BobbyJ1956]

Wigan are a Lancashire club, reason enough to want them to stay up.