john68 wrote:At last, we are getting a decent standard of debate about this, instead of some of the shite knee jerk stuff we got immediately after the Kiev game. We can be grateful for that at least....and thanks for the kind words Doug..I'll ignore the age dig...:-)
STABILITY
Is the most important factor and no team has sustained success without it. Madrid, Chelsea and even the old Liverpool changed managers but their sustained success was after they and their teams had become established at the top over years and the direction of the club hard wired. It was when Souness changed everything at Liverpool that they failed. Chelsea were already at the top before Abramovich arrived, they had chucked millions at the jog already and were £130M in debt.
City are nowhere near there yet but understand the problem. That was why Marwood was brought in. Putting Hughes ans mancini aside for a moment, City chanded our direction and policy in the middle of Hughes's tenure (around Xmas) . Marwood was employed, buying was speeded up and a new direction policy instigated to ensure we would meet the fair play rules. That was when all our major changes took place and what ultimately got Hughes sacked.
SHORT TERM V LONG TERM
Our biggest problem is demanding immediate success, whilst trying to develop something in the long term that can be sustained. Short term is easier. Buy established older and experienced players who can do a short term job (Fowler, Hamman, McManaman). Lobger term means patience. It means seeing talent and waiting until it develops and reaches it's potential...Dzeko, Micah, Hart, Balotelli). Short term and long term are not easy bedmates, they work against each other.
OUR SQUAD
I think many of us (me included) can sometimes be a bit deluded and over estimate the quality of our squad. Ask the question; "Which players we have now could win us the "Champions League" or are truly World class?". not that many at the moment, though quite a few if given the time and the right nurturing. Tevez, Silva, Kompany, De Jong are probably already there. Hart, Boateng, Micah, (A) Johnson, Balotelli, Dzeko, are possibles but they will take time to get there. You can make your own minds up regarding ther likes of Barry, Milner, Lescott, Kolarov, Yaya and the rest of our squad. We are still a very long way off the likes of Barca...and that is our long term goal.
CONCLUSION
I leave you draw your own....But that Slim, is why I remain on top of the trenches shouting "Hold the Line" Mate. We are not yet strong enough to make the charge but the troops will become more battle hardened and reinforcements will arrive and we will charge mate...Trust me Slim, WE WILL.
Once we get into the CL, I would expect it to take several years before we even get close to winning it. There's a massive learning curve, to stay in the CL and do well domestically. But first we MUST get into the CL and then stay there year on year.
I'm no fan of the 4th is everything. I'd much rather win the FA Cup and finish 5th, than lose to Reading and get 4th. However, the fair play rules mean that the CL revenue is all important. It doesn't come with a trophy or an open top bus, but without it, we'll be in all sorts of problems.
I'm happy to take a risk on Balotelli, in the hope he becomes one of the world's best, rather than trying to buy one who's already made it. Not sure he'll get there, but it's worth the chance. In the same way, I'd have no problem bringing in other young players.
I also don't have a real problem with the likes of a Vieira to add some experience to the squad.
I do have a problem with bringing in players who are too old to have potential, but clearly aren't top 4 material - you've named several, brought in by both Hughes and Mancini. This is where the money has been wasted.
As for the current first team, how many would be snapped up by the Rags, if they were available on a free. For that matter, if their squad were available, how many would we take? I'd guess about 4 each for the first team, plus another couple as potential. Our first team and especially full squad is as good as, if not better than the rest of the Premier League. The balance may not be right, meaning it's hard to find a first 11 who fit together, but the squad as a whole is fine.
In which case, why are we doing so badly (compared to where we could have been, considering the worsening standard at the top of the league)?
You mention again about giving it time. If Mancini is the right man for the job, then of course, you are right. Ultimately, the only way we'd find out is to give him another 3 years minimum and see what happens. If he's not the right man, then we can forget about making the top 4 EVER - that is the outcome of the fair play rules. If you're not in it when they start, you'll never be able to spend enough to get in it. The club therefore need to make a very important decision - stick by Mancini and keep their fingers crossed, or find someone else, and keep their fingers crossed.
The team we are closest to at the moment, in terms of a 'project' (although I still insist it's not a project, by any definition) is probably Spurs. When arry came in, they were struggling. He's spent a few quid and turned them into a decent side, albeit not one good enough to win the title. As things stand, they're in the 1/4s of the CL, out of all domestic cups and could finish 4th. We're almost in the semi of the FA cup, have a chance to make the 1/4 of the Europa and have a slightly better chance of making 4th (on the basis we're currently above them and have to play them at home). Would we swap our season for theirs? Personally, I would. They'd frustrate and annoy me due to their defensive inefficiencies but I'd put up with that for the highs that come from the way they try to play.
If you get it right, football should be about one high after another (apparently). If not, it's the highs and lows which excite. I suspect most City fans of my era who don't remember success, look back to seasons such as the promotions under Royle and especially the one under Keegan as being real highs. We had to get pretty low to get there, but that just made the success more enjoyable. It now feels like we're on a hill. Not a very steep one, but one where you can't see the top. You just keep slogging away, getting a bit closer, but no idea how far you've got to go. It becomes a bit tedious after a while.
Hopefully, the next three games can provide some of the highs again, albeit with the risk of a crushing low somewhere, although I suspect they'll be more of the same hill.